Since 2008, this Grade 1 has been run over about 2 miles and 5 furlongs where 17 fences are due to be jumped. The race was first run in 1995 and known as the Comet Chase where it was originally run over 2 miles and 3 and a half furlongs.
I’ve looked at all runnings at the current trip since 2008 and compared to the last decade to see if there are any obvious profiles that typically land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Preferably aged 7-years-old (profitable to back blind)
- Will be priced 4/1 or shorter
- Will hold an OR of 162 or higher and top-rated runners are profitable to back blind
- Will have already won at Ascot or be having their first run here
- Will have won at 20-22 furlongs in 50% of their races at that range
- Will have won 40% or more of their chase runs
- Expected to have won at least a Grade 2 before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 7/17 (41%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 4/17 (23%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 2/17 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 2/17 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/17 (6%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12yo – 1/17 (6%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds have the highest strike rate both since 2008 and in the last decade and it’s been a profitable age to back blind. There are no big-priced winners to have skewed these figures either.
We’ve had winners spanning the age range of 7-12 so you certainly wouldn’t rule out any horse by age, but preference must go to 7-year-olds.
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/17 (59%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Second favourites – 4/17 (23%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Third favourites – 3/17 (18%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 13/8 to 4/1 – 11/17 (65%) & 9/10 (90%)
All winners have come from the first three in the betting and both favourites and second favourites have been profitable to back blind in the last decade but only favourites were since 2008.
Backing runners priced between 13/8 and 4/1 has shown a profit both since 2008 and in the last decade and accounted for most winners. The biggest priced winner since 2008 was 12yo Monets Garden at 11/2 back in 2010.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 162 or more – 16/17 (94%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who were the Top-rated runner – 10/17 (59%) & 5/10 (50%)
All bar one winner held an OR of 162 or higher before landing this race and if you had backed every runner with an OR of 162 or higher you’d make money blind.
Top-rated runners have landed more than half of renewals since 2008 and show a 51% ROI since then, and a 57% ROI in the last decade. This is consistent and clearly profitable.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/17 (47%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Second last time out – 4/17 (23%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 14/17 (82%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Last ran at Kempton – 10/17 (59%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out figures won’t make you money following any alone, but most winner placed top last time out, more winners than not last ran at Kempton, although pay attention to Ascot runners last time out too. Most runners last ran between 16-60 days ago but most winners did too.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 12/17 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 12/12 (100%) & 8/8 (100%)
Most winners had run at Ascot and all of those winners had won at the track too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more WINS at 20-22F – 10/17 (59%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winner who had won 50% or MORE of races at 20-22F – 13/17 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 10 or MORE runs over fences – 9/17 (53%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had won 40% or MORE of chase runs – 15/17 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Every single winner of this race had already run and won a race between 20 and 22 furlongs. More recent winners had at least 2 wins at this trip range but if you scale it to winners who had won 50% or more of their races at 20-22 furlongs you get around an 80% figure in both windows.
It’s also very important for winners of this race to have won at least 40% of their chase runs.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 11/17 (65%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Grade 2 – 15/17 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race had at least won a Grade 2 before now but the two who hadn’t were yet to win a Graded race of any nature. Most previous Grade 1 winners were multiple Grade 1 winners.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.