A staying Group 1 at Royal Ascot has been the likes of Kayf Tara, Fame And Glory, Westerner and Yeats progress into legendary NH Sires and their progeny is littered with Cheltenham Festival winners. With the C-word now mentioned, let’s look at all renewals this century and in comparison, to the last decade, to see if we can work out who takes this race now Kyprios has been retired.
KEY TRENDS
- Focus on 4-year-olds and 6-year-olds
- Favourites are profitable to follow blind, better still if they are sent off 9/4 or shorter
- Has an OR of 117 or higher
- If the highest rated runner in the field also must be clear favourite
- Must have placed Top 3 last time out and last ran between 16 and 53 days ago
- Will have won over at least 14-furlongs but ideally 16-furlongs or further
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Yeats was both the 7 and 8-year-old winner of this race so it’s better to focus on 4-year-olds to 6-year-olds. They have the higher strike-rates although this century it’s 6-year-olds that show the lowest loss to a £1 level stake and they also show the highest place percentage.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- SP of 9/4 or shorter – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites have been profitable to back blind across both periods and if you focussed solely on runners sent of at 9/4 and shorter you would be making more than just backing all favourites blind.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2011)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 5/14 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners with an OR of 117 or higher – 11/14 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
Backing the highest rated runner alone in this race will not make you profit however all 5 winners who were the highest rated were sent off clear favourite too. If you combine those measures, you’d see a 25% ROI this century.
Most winners held an OR of 117 or higher which has also been profitable to follow blind this century but shows a very small loss in the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran in the last 16-53 days – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race won last time out but you’d be losing a fair amount if you backed all of those runner’s blind. Most will have placed Top 3 last time out (all of the last 15) and should have run between 16 and 53 days ago. This alone though, isn’t going to whittle the field down too far
FORM
- Group 1 winner – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Furthest win at 16 furlongs or further – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (80%)
Being a previous Group 1 winner is a nice thing to have but if you take into account that many horses have come back to win this race again then it doesn’t need to be a box ticked.
Most winners will have won over 2-miles or further by now and almost all winners had won over at least 1-mile 6-furlongs.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Kyprios (IRE)
- 2023 – Courage Mon Ami (GB)
- 2022 – Kyprios (IRE)
- 2021 – Subjectivist (GB)
- 2020 – Stradivarius (IRE)
- 2019 – Stradivarius (IRE)
- 2018 – Stradivarius (IRE)
- 2017 – Big Orange (GB)
- 2016 – Order Of St George (IRE)
- 2015 – Trip To Paris (IRE)
- 2014 – Leading Light (IRE)
- 2013 – Estimate (IRE)
- 2012 – Colour Vision (FR)
- 2011 – Fame And Glory (GB)
- 2010 – Rite Of Passage (GB)
- 2009 – Yeats (IRE)
- 2008 – Yeats (IRE)
- 2007 – Yeats (IRE)
- 2006 – Yeats (IRE)
- 2005 – Westerner (GB)
- 2004 – Papineau (GB)
- 2003 – Mr Dinos (IRE)
- 2002 – Royal Rebel (GB)
- 2001 – Royal Rebel (GB)
- 2000 – Kayf Tara (GB