25 will contest another fiercely competitive Ayr Gold Cup this weekend. The full field makes for a wide open betting heat as Joe Napier tries to find the winner in his preview below.
Favourites
The market had installed Northern Ticker as favourite well before declarations were finalised. Michael Dods’ charge looks every bit the progressive sprinter, winning a race just as competitive as this at York last time out. A 5lb penalty is the fine for his troubles, but aside from his seasonal debut, he has always run well and is not ground dependent. Rain arriving would could even aid his chances further.
An even more eyecatching runner is his fellow three-year-old Ain’t Nobody. A Royal Ascot winner as a juvenile, this season had not gone to plan since a promising return to action until he ran a screamer to be second in the Group 1 Nunthorpe over 5f. However, he does get 6f at his best and a mark of 99 could be made a mockery of if in remotely the same form, though a run in between in the Sprint Cup at Haydock highlighted the in-out nature of his runs this term and stall 1 is a serious worry too.
Unlike Ain’t Nobody, who has generally struggled this term, it has been a sensational season for Two Tribes. He won the International Handicap over 7f at Ascot in July, after which something clearly clicked, as he bolted in to land the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood thereafter. An 8lb rise was tough, but he was a close fourth to Northern Ticker at York last time out and can go well again off top-weight.
Contenders
Last year’s Silver Cup winner Alfa Kellenic returns after a 343-day absence. She closed out a six-timer when landing that race last year for Craig Lidster, but that mammoth absence, coupled with switching yards in the interim, raises too many doubts to be confident about her, albeit any further progression would surely give her every chance.
Another in good form, though much earlier in his career, is Flash Harry. He won convincingly at Goodwood last month, and is effectively 2lb well in as a result, so is respected as a sprinter who could easily have more in the locker for trainer Clive Cox. 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls could prove a wise employment for this race.
Hammer The Hammer was enjoying a superb time of things until a no-show in the Stewards’ Cup. He remains weighted to the hilt for now for all he can be forgiven one poor run while Strike Red also has potential having done best of those drawn high at York behind Northern Ticker latest, though he does only have one win in his last 19 races, with the handicapper yet to fully relent.
Outsiders
Both Aramram and Jubilee Walk are likely to go well being consistent types who could reward each-way players. Among the veterans in the field, the likes of Jordan Electrics and Twilight Calls may no longer retain enough spark to win off their ratings, but both Bergerac and Commanche Falls have something to recommend them on.
The former was third in the Silver Cup last year off 2lb higher, but was well clear among those drawn low and ran respectively at York when 5½f was possibly too short last time out. The latter meanwhile, blew out at Doncaster last weekend, but that has never been his track, and he is now 5lb better off with stablemate Northern Ticker for having gone down by just a head to him at York in August.
The draw is not kind for Toyotomi, but David O’Meara’s charge is also worth a mention given any rain, as he was fourth in Group 3 company in France only three starts back. He would make each-way appeal on that basis, with the reverse true of Irish challenger Go Athletico, whose win two starts back at the Curragh is good form, but who could do with the ground riding swiftly enough.
Verdict
Another victory could await top-weight TWO TRIBES, who has enjoyed a terrific summer, goes with cut in the ground, and was less than a length behind the protagonists at York last time, with the weights now more in his favour. That likewise goes for Commanche Falls, who can reverse form with stablemate Northern Ticker from that day, with Flash Harry, Bergerac and Strike Red others who can go well.
- Two Tribes
- Commanche Falls
- Flash Harry
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