The 2017 running was moved to Haydock so has been removed from some trends, such as draw and course form. There was a dead heat in 2018 between Son Of Rest and Baron Bolt so some trends will be out of 26 rather than 25 and the last 10 will count as 11 in most cases (except for the 2017 Haydock running, which isn’t relevant).
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be aged 3 to 6-years-old
- Likely to be priced 20/1 or shorter with respect to those of a single-figure price
- Likely to be drawn in stall 8 or higher
- Has an OR of at least 97 and respect those rated 100 to 102
- Must have run in the last 60 days
- Has run at least 4 times this season and preferably has won this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 3/26 (12%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 4yo – 9/26 (35%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 5yo – 8/26 (31%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 6yo – 5/26 (19%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 7yo – 0/26 (0%) & 0/11 (0%)
- 8yo – 1/26 (4%) & 1/11 (9%)
The last 7-year-old winner of this race came back and since 1960 there have been just two horses older than 6 to land this race and 113 have tried this century.
Only 5-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century but the strike-rates for ages 3 to 6 sits at 4 or 5% so the ratios are close.
3-year-olds are profitable to back blind from the last 10 renewals with the highest strike-rate. Those strike-rates do drop in the last decade as horses get older up to the age of 7.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 20/1 or Shorter – 22/26 (85%) & 9/11 (82%)
There have been 4 winning favourites this century (including joints etc) and all of those have come from the last 10 renewals. They’re profitable in the recent period but not over the long term.
Most winners are priced 20/1 or shorter and the profitable band this century comes between 14/1 and 20/1 but it’s between 9/2 and 8/1 in the last decade. Possibly a turning trend, or a trend that has already turned.
DRAW – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Stall 12 or higher – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Stall 8 or higher – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners of this race have some from the Top half of the draw and this can be further increased by looking at runners in stalls 8 or higher who have landed almost 90% of the races this century, and all of the last 17 with Haydock excluded.
It’s not profitable to back all runners from stall 8 or higher or even backing all runners from the Top half of the draw blind, but this century stalls 19 to 22 would have found 7 winners and shows a blind profit of £30 from 89 qualifiers so that’s worth keeping in mind.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 9-1 plus – 17/26 (65%) & 9/11 (82%)
- Carrying 8-12 to 9-05 – 16/26 (62%) & 8/11 (73%)
I’ve found two weight measures which provide most winners but neither are profitable to back blind. It’s going to be helpful to find the winners, but we’re going to need more than just the weight carried to whittle this into a profitable profile.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 16/26 (62%) & 9/11 (82%)
You’ll find most winners of this race with an OR of 100 or higher and there have been 5 more winners further back this century who held an OR of 97 to 99. A profitable sweet spot appears to be in runners with an OR of 100 to 102, who have taken 7 of the last 10 renewals (including both winners from the dead-heat in 2018)
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 6/26 (23%) & 4/11 (36%)
- Top 4 – 15/26 (58%) & 7/11 (64%)
- 6f – 12/26 (46%) & 5/11 (46%)
- 1-7 days – 2/26 (8%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 8-15 days – 8/26 (31%) & 0/11 (0%)
- 16-30 days – 8/26 (31%) & 5/11 (46%)
- 31-60 days – 8/26 (31%) & 4/11 (36%)
This century, horses who ran in the last 7 days have been the most expensive to follow blind whoever in the last decade, it’s been horses who ran between 8 and 15 days ago.
All winners ran inside the last 60 days but it might be worth favouring those who have had 16 or more days off the track who come into this race fresh.
More winners than not did NOT run at 6 furlongs last time out but of those who did, 5 came from Goodwood and 3 came from Ripon. The 3 from Ripon all at least placed last time out.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Winners who had RUN at Ayr – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Ayr – 2/12 (17%) & 1/4 (25%)
Given this race is a feature in Scotland, it’s not surprising that most winners had not already raced at Ayr. Of those who had run here most had lost, so while course form would never be considered a negative, it’s not a requirement for a bold show to be expected.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 6f – 25/26 (96%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 6f – 17/25 (68%) & 9/11 (82%)
There has only been one winner who had not raced at 6 furlongs before now, but I don’t think many will have tried. Many horses will have multiple runs at the trips but you want to look for horses who have multiple wins at the trip as the priority.
SEASON FORM
- Had 4+ runs this season – 26/26 (100%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 21/26 (81%) & 8/11 (73%)
- Had 6+ runs this season – 17/26 (65%) & 6/11 (55%)
- 0 wins this season – 9/26 (35%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 1 win this season – 8/26 (31%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 2 or more wins this season – 9/26 (35%) & 5/11 (45%)
Every winner of this race had run 4 or more times this season and most had 5 or more runs. Most winners had won this season and of those, most had won more than once.