Trainer Richard Spencer took both the Ayr Gold Cup and Ayr Silver Cup last year which optimises the desire to target this big handicap and the consolation alongside that.
I’ve looked at all the last 25 running’s and compared the last 10 to see what patterns are typical of this contest and what might be changing.
The 2017 running was moved to Haydock so has been removed from some trends, such as Draw and Course Form. There was a Dead Heat in 2018 between Son Of Rest and Baron Bolt so some trends will be out of 26 rather than 25 and the last 10 will count as 11 in most cases (except for where the 2017 Haydock running isn’t relevant)
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be aged 3 to 6-years-old with preference to 4 and 5-year-olds
- Recent trends suggest the winner will likely be sent off no bigger than 12/1
- Marginal preference for runners drawn in the Top half
- Unlikely to be drawn in the lowest 5 stalls
- Preference to runners with an OR between 100 and 104
- Did NOT run between 8 and 15 days ago
- Has 4 or more runs this season and 0 to 2 wins this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 3/26 (12%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 4yo – 10/26 (38%) & 5/11 (45%)
- 5yo – 7/26 (27%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 6yo – 5/26 (19%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 7yo – 0/26 (0%) & 0/11 (0%)
- 8yo – 1/26 (4%) & 1/11 (9%)
The last 7-year-old winner of this race came back in 1993 and since 1960 there have been just two horses older than 6 to land this race. To provide some level of context; 120 have tried this century.
No age is profitable to back blind from the last 25 renewals however 4-year-olds do operate at the best strike rate with 10 winners from 176 runners although they are the heaviest loss makers of any winning age.
The same is true of the last 10 renewals with 4-year-olds operating at the highest strike rate but not profitable to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 12/1 or Shorter – 13/26 (50%) & 8/11 (73%)
In the last 10 renewals it’s been profitable to back favourites blind and also all runners with an SP of 12/1 or shorter.
From the last 25 renewals, the picture is quite different with only one further winning favourite and only 5 further winners sent off 12/1 or shorter. Worth acknowledging that this may be a trend that has turned in favourite of the market knowing more than it used to.
DRAW – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Stall 12 or higher – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Stall 8 or higher – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners of this race have some from the Top half of the draw and this can be further increased by looking at runners in stalls 8 or higher who have landed almost 90% of the races this century and in the last 10 renewals (excluding Haydock)
It’s not profitable to back all runners from stall 8 or higher or even backing all runners from the Top half of the draw blind and we can see that winners come from both sides of the draw. Preference though should be given to those drawn higher rather than lower but the market will adjust for this too.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 9-1 plus – 17/26 (65%) & 9/11 (82%)
- Carrying 8-12 to 9-05 – 16/26 (62%) & 8/11 (73%)
There are two weight measures which can capture the majority of winners however neither are profitable to back blind on their own so the weight metric needs to be used in conjunction with other trends.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 16/26 (62%) & 8/11 (73%)
You’ll find most winners of this race with an OR of 100 or higher and there have been 5 more winners further back this century who held an OR of 97 to 99.
Since 2011, if you backed every runner with an OR of 100 to 104 you’d have found 10 of the 16 winners and while it shows a modest 6% ROI to SP it shows a 69% ROI is using Betfair SP.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 6/26 (23%) & 3/11 (27%)
- Top 4 – 16/26 (62%) & 7/11 (64%)
- 6f – 11/26 (42%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 1-7 days – 3/26 (12%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 8-15 days – 7/26 (28%) & 0/11 (0%)
- 16-30 days – 8/26 (31%) & 5/11 (46%)
- 31-60 days – 8/26 (31%) & 3/11 (27%)
4 of the last 6 winners came from the Stewards Cup (2) or The Portland (2) which means either 49 or 7 days since they last ran. That makes finding the window for day since last run a little open but overall you’d do well to ignore those with an 8 to 15 day layoff.
More winners than not did NOT run at exactly 6f last time out which should be another marker taken into account.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Winners who had RUN at Ayr – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Ayr – 2/12 (17%) & 1/4 (25%)
Given this race is a feature in Scotland, it’s not surprising that most winners had not already raced at Ayr. Of those who had run here most had lost, so while course form would never be considered a negative, it’s not a requirement for a bold show to be expected.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 6f – 25/26 (96%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 6f – 16/25 (64%) & 8/11 (73%)
While many winners of this contest did NOT race at 6 furlongs last time out, all bar one winner had tried this trip but not all of those had won at 6 furlongs too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 4+ runs this season – 26/26 (100%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 21/26 (81%) & 9/11 (82%)
- Had 6+ runs this season – 17/26 (65%) & 7/11 (64%)
- 0 wins this season – 10/26 (40%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 1 win this season – 8/26 (31%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 2 or more wins this season – 8/26 (31%) & 4/11 (36%)
Every winner of this race had run 4 or more times this season and most had 5 or more runs. Most winners had won this season but only 1 of the last 11 winners had won more than twice that season.
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