The Grand National fences are always a great spectacle and the Becher Chase has seen many familiar faces land the spoils including two same season Grand National winners.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared to the last 10 to see if I can highlight the key trends to look out for in this race.
KEY TRENDS
- 8 and 9-year-olds are the winning most ages but don’t hold a strike rate advantage
- Favourites perform well to a £1 level stake
- Look to those carrying 10-12 or less
- Look to those rated 142 or lower
- Respect horses who finished exactly second last time out
- Respect runners who last ran 16 to 30 days ago
- Only accept headgear if it’s cheekpieces and preferably worn for the first time
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 12yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 13yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 14yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
This is often a big field race so the strike rates of most ages is quite low and only three are above 5%. It’s 8% for 9yos, 25% for 13yos and 100% for 14yos this century. It’s a similar image across the last 10 renewals where again the bulk of winners are aged 8 or 9 but they’re among the lower strike rates.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites are profitable to follow blind this century with a 23% strike rate and a £7.5 profit from 26 qualifiers (including joint & co favourites). You can find around the same number of winners again by casting the net to include the second and third favourites but they’re not profitable to follow blind in the long term.
WEIGHT
- Winners carrying 10-12 or less – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race shoulder 10-12 or less and it’s been profitable to follow this blind since 2000 for a modest £1.50 profit and then a £7 profit from the last 10 runnings. Not huge, but it’s around a 7% ROI.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 142 or lower – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
While it’s not been profitable to follow blind this century most winners hold an OR of 142 or lower. It has been profitable from the last 10 running’s for a £7 profit to a £1 level stake.
WEIGHT CARRIED AND OFFICIAL RATING COMBINED
- Winners rated 142 or lower carrying 10-12 or less – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
8 winners in the last 10 held an OR of 142 or lower and shouldered 10-12 or less for a ROI of 24% to SP alone. It’s found 18 winners this century showing a 7% ROI to SP.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 15 days ago or less – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Ran 30 days ago or less – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran 60 days ago or less – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Finished Top 2 last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
No winner has won from a break of 15 days or less from the 68 who have tried this century. Most winners had run this season and ideally between 16 and 30 days ago. This is profitable to back blind for over a 10% ROI.
Over a third of winners placed top 2 last time out but last time out winners are loss makers blind however runner ups are profitable blind this century to almost a 100% ROI.
The results continue in the same light when looking at the last 10 running’s.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over National Fences – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON over National Fences – 10/23 (43%) & 6/10 (60%)
The winner is expected to have run over the National Fences before now but is not required to have won over them too.
HEADGEAR
- Cheekpieces – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Blinkers – 0/24 (0%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Visor – 0/24 (0%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 1st time headgear – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
Headgear shows that most winners will NOT be sporting any support. First time headgear wearers are showing a 328% ROI to SP thanks to 2 winners from 7 runners this century. This jumps greatly looking at the last 10 renewals with 2 winners from 3 qualifiers for a 900% ROI.
The only successful headgear to be worn in this race is Cheekpieces but it shows a -15% ROI to SP this century. 4 of the 6 winners with this headgear came from the last 10 renewals but this returns exactly the same as the outlay.