The season finale for British Jumps racing at Sandown sees a whole host of competitive racing which is targeted by some big names and this Handicap is one of the highest on the list.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century and compared against the last 10 runnings to see if we can help find this year’s winner too.
KEY TRENDS
- Look for 7 and 8-year-olds with preference to 7-year-olds
- Most likely holds and SP between 7/1 and 14/1 and is 2nd or 3rd favourite
- Preference to runners holding an OR of 140 to 151
- Probably placed Top 3 last time out with extra credit to those placing exactly 3rd LTO
- Will have last run between 16 and 60 days ago with preference to 16 to 30 days ago
- Probably hasn’t won at Sandown and most likely hasn’t run here either
- Respect runners with exactly 1 win this season
- Turning trend in favour of horses in Cheekpieces or Blinkers
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
This century 7-year-olds have a superior strike rate and that also translates to them being a profitable age to back blind with a 45% ROI and £27.25 profit to a £1 level stake.
8-year-olds have just one fewer win but from almost twice as many runners and they’re not profitable to follow blind.
In the last decade it’s a similar picture with 7 and 8-year-olds dominating the winners but again it’s 7-year-olds who are profitable blind with an 80% ROI and almost 3 times the winning strike rate.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2nd or 3rd favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 7/1 to 14/1 – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Just two winning favourites of this race this century coming backing in 2023 and right back in 2000 means we may have to wait a while for another.
2nd and 3rd favourites have twice as many chances on numbers, although their expectation wouldn’t be twice that of the favourite. They have 3 times as many wins than favourite though and each are profitable in isolation the century and combined in the last decade.
Backing all runners sent off at 7/1 to 14/1 shows a 6% ROI to SP and 24% ROI using Betfair SP in the last decade, and while still profitable on Betfair SP this century, they show a -3% ROI to industry SP, but still are a fair guide.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 140 and 151 – 13/25 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 10-8 to 11-0 – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
Bit of tricky one to whittle down a range for both OR and Weight carried and the ceiling has sat at 11-05 in terms of weight carried but the 2 winners carrying 11-09 both won in the last 5 renewals.
OR wise, all of the last 6 winners were rated between 140 and 151 and while the 2 prior weren’t, the previous 3 were so it looks like a band to stick with now.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 last time out – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Pulled Up or Unseated – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners are heavy loss makers this century while horses who placed second and third last time out are money makers, with those placing 3rd showing a 126% ROI and £41.50 for a £1 level stake.
In the last decade it’s the same pattern but it’s horses placing 3rd that shine most with a 313% ROI and £56.50 profit from £1 level stakes
Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago which isn’t profitable to follow blind in the last decade, but following those who last ran between 16 and 30 days ago is. The same is true for this century.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 12/25 (48%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at Sandown – 2/12 (17%) & 0/3 (0%)
Sandown isn’t a track suitable for all horses and there have been 99 horses in the last decade who contested this but only producing 3 winners and showing a massive -83% ROI. In the same period, 75 horses were having their first look here and 7 of those won showing a 64% ROI.
Not many winners of this race who had run at Sandown had even won here so that’s a tricky trend to work with in terms of seeing previous Sandown form as a positive, even considering that 48 of the 99 runners who had been here in the last decade produced no winners.
FORM
- Has their furthest win at 3m to 3m 2f – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins or just 1 win this season – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners had no more than one win this season but backing all runners with 0 or 1 win in the last decade is a loss maker. Changing that to runners with exactly 1 win this season finds 5 of the 8 recent winners and shows a 30% ROI which doubles if using Betfair SP.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 14/25 (56%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who were sporting Cheekpieces or Blinkers – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners this century were NOT wearing headgear, but this has been a turning trend in the last decade and now shows a small 2% ROI if backing all runners with Cheekpieces or Blinkers.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Resplenent Grey (IRE)
- 2024 – Minella Cocooner (IRE)
- 2023 – Kittys Light (GB)
- 2022 – Hewick (IRE)
- 2021 – Potterman (GB)
- 2019 – Talkischeap (IRE)
- 2018 – Step Back (IRE)
- 2017 – Henllan Harri (IRE)
- 2016 – The Young Master (GB)
- 2015 – Just A Par (IRE)
- 2014 – Hadrians Approach (IRE)
- 2013 – Quentin Collonges (FR)
- 2012 – Tidal Bay (IRE)
- 2011 – Poker De Sivola (FR)
- 2010 – Church Island (IRE)
- 2009 – Hennessy (IRE)
- 2008 – Monkerhostin (FR)
- 2007 – Hot Weld (GB)
- 2006 – Lacdoudal (FR)
- 2005 – Jack High (IRE)
- 2004 – Puntal (FR)
- 2003 – Ad Hoc (IRE)
- 2002 – Bounce Back (USA)
- 2001 – Ad Hoc (IRE)
- 2000 – Beau (IRE)