It is the big season ending handicap of the jumps, and for this year’s British-Irish battle for the bet365 Gold Cup, Dave Young has run the trends to come up with a value selection in the race.
The former Whitbread provides a season conclusion at Sandown which will be one for the ages this time around with Willie Mullins looking to secure a British Trainers Title which he only started to actively participate this month. I’ve delved into some recent trends to provide a few runners for thought but since it’s first running in 1957 we’ve had just four two-time winners spanning from the 1960’s to the 2000’s so with KITTY’S LIGHT heading the market, are we due another?
10-year Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners were aged 7-9
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT won a race at Sandown
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run at about three miles plus last time out
- Nine of the last 10 winners ran inside the last nine weeks
- Eight of the last 10 winners had won a race that season (six of those just once)
- Eight of the last 10 winners finished top three on their last completed start
- Seven of the last 10 winners were having their first run at the track
- Six of the last 10 winners posted their season peak RPR last time out
Shortlist using the top 6 from above
DOES HE KNOW, MINELLA COCOONER, SLIPWAY
5-year Trends
- ALL of the last five winners had NOT won a race at Sandown
- ALL of the last five winners were aged 7-9
- ALL of the last five winners had won a race that season
- ALL of the last five winners had run at about three miles plus last time out
- Four of the last five winners won on their last completed start
- Four of the last five winners had posted an RPR of 150+ that season (all of the last four)
- Four of the last five winners posted their season peak RPR last time out (the other was on their penultimate start)
- Four of the last five winners ran inside the last nine weeks
Shortlist using ALL of the above
DOES HE KNOW (THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE ran inside the last 10 weeks if you want to be forgiving)
bet365 Gold Cup Runners – Full 20 Declared as Kitty’s Light to Fend Off Mullins Quartet
The bet365 Gold Cup, the feature handicap on the final day of the British jumps season, has seen 28 runners confirmed at the five day stage. They are headlined by four entries for British champion trainer elect Willie Mullins, as he seeks to consolidate his position as the top handler this side of the Irish…
Thu 25 Apr 2024Verdict
It’s impossible to get away from the fact that DOES HE KNOW ticks the most boxes for both five and ten-year trends and while the majority of his racing has come left-handed, he boasts an impressive two wins and two seconds from five runs right-handed. He has won on Good To Firm going and also on soft so we know he’s versatile on that front, and while the first time cheek-pieces may have been the helping hand he needed to win last time out, I don’t feel they would lose their magic second time up as he won back to back in a hood after two defeats prior.
The 5lb hike from his latest win does seem a little harsh, but the second (and only other finisher) was well supported and ran well enough next time out at Cheltenham’s April meeting so with all things considered, the 25/1 about him seems excessive.
MINELLA COCOONER is a reported bad traveller which is why Willie Mullins has skipped Cheltenham with him this season, however, I’m not overly concerned by that nor is the market and he boasts impressive form on better ground with three wins and two seconds from five starts on Good To Soft or quicker. He’s probably skinny enough though with those travelling reservations but he too ticks all the 10-year trends.
SLIPWAY is consistently inconsistent, so he’d require some faith if you were to back him but he’s another top box ticker and on his best efforts he’d have a chance so again the 25/1 top price about him is worth a second look.
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