The Betfair Chase was introduced in 2005 and originally was the first leg of a million-pound bonus which could be attained by landing this, the King George and the Gold Cup all in the same season. Kauto Star secured this prize in the 2006/2007 season and Cue Card fell when in contention for the final leg in 2015/2016.
In the 20 runnings of this race, we’ve seen many multiple winners which means there have been just 11 names on this trophy to date.
I’ve looked at all those runnings to see if we can decipher what trends are relevant in landing this first Grade 1 of the British Jumps season.
KEY TRENDS
- Be wary of 8-year-olds
- The winner will come from the front 3 in the betting: it’s profitable to follow the second and third favourites blind
- Has an OR of 164+ but is probably not the highest rated runner in the race
- Ran at 3 miles plus in open company last time out, but probably did NOT win last time out
- Doesn’t need course form but must have won here if has two or more runs here
- Should have won at 3 miles or further before now
- Has more than 10 runs and more than 3 wins over fences
- Should already be a Grade 1 winner and preferably multiple times
- Respect French Bred runners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 3/20 (15%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/20 (30%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 2/20 (10%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 5/20 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 3/20 (15%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 1/20 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
In all runnings of this race it’s been profitable to back 6, 7, 10 and 11-year-olds blind with both 8 and 9-year-olds significant loss makers.
In the last decade it’s only 7-year-olds who are profitable to back blind and 8-year-olds again are the heaviest loss makers.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/20 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Second Favourites – 6/20 (30%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Third Favourites – 4/20 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
Second favourites show an 80% ROI in the last decade and third favourites show a 50% ROI. If backing both those qualifiers you would have found 6 of the last 10 winners and be showing a £12.75 from £19 layout. Favourites on their own are loss makers in the last decade.
The same results are true for all runnings of this race although it’s £12.83 profit from £42 in all runnings if following the second and third favourites which shows that recent years have created that profit.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 164 or more – 15/20 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 7/20 (35%) & 2/10 (20%)
There has only been one winner of this race who did not have an OR of 160 or higher so there is no doubt it’s classy horses who take this. It’s never been a race where the Top Rated runner has held a huge advantage and only 1 winner from the last 8 held that title.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 18 and 27 days ago – 11/20 (55%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran 199 days ago or more – 9/20 (45%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Sent off Favourite – 12/20 (60%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Won last time out – 6/20 (30%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran at 3 miles plus – 16/20 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in open company – 19/20 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
A few turning trends here with more winners coming here fresh than used to be the case which is true for all the last 5 and 6 of the last 7.
Most winners of this race did NOT win last time out which has been consistent as has running at 3 miles or further last time out and in open company too.
Most winners of this race were sent off as favourite last time out but only 1 of the last 5 met that criteria.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 15/20 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 10/15 (67%) & 7/8 (868
- First time winners who had RUN at Haydock – 6/11 (55%) & 3/5 (60%)
- First time winners who had WON at Haydock – 2/6 (33%) & 2/3 (67%)
With so many horses taking this race on more than one occasions we must consider that when looking at course form, especially with the requirement to have won here too.
Just looking at first-time winners though just over half had already raced here and the two who had won both had run here more than once.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON at 3 miles or further – 17/20 (85%) & 10/10 (100%)
Two of the three winners who had NOT won at 3 miles or further were 6-year-olds trained by Paul Nicholls. It is expected that the winner of this race has already won at 3 miles or further before now
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had more than 10 RUNS over fences – 15/20 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 3 WINS over fences – 17/20 (85%) & 9/10 (90%)
Again, with so many multiple winners of this race the numbers might be slightly skewed, but that said there is a clear need for experience to land this race. Most winners had more than 10 runs over fences and most had more than 3 wins over fences
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 16/20 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won more than one Grade 1 – 12/16 (75%) & 6/9 (67%)
This is the first Grade 1 on these shores and it’s a prize worth winning. Therefore it’s not unusual to see that most winners of this race have previously won a Grade 1 and most of those had won at least two (but again there are many multiple winners of this race, which is a Grade 1)
BREEDING
- French Bred – 13/20 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
It’s not profitable to back all French Breds in this race but it wouldn’t lose you much money either. It’s fair to say that the preference must got to French Bred for this race.