Day two of the Breeders’ Cup features the championship races such as the Turf and the Classic. Here is Dave Young’s trends analysis for the entirety of day two at the Breeders’ Cup.
The non-stop action continues on Saturday where the Breeders’ Cup will crown nine more World Champions across different surfaces and divisions, including the season-defining $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. Given that not all runnings come from the same venue, the distance of some races varies depending on the configuration of the host racetrack.
BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE – GRADE 1 – 1M
- ALL of the last 10 winners placed top 2 last time out (6 won – last 5)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had won more than once that year (last 7)
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at exactly 1M last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners and ALL the last four winners were favourite
“Finished top 2 last time out but ideally won, should have been favourite and did NOT run at exactly 1m last time out and already has more than one win this year”
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT – GRADE 1 – 5F
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran 28 days ago or more
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had more than one win that year
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT record their career peak RPR last time out (last 3 did)
- 7 of the last 10 had not already won a G1
- Two runnings at DEL MAR from the last 10 the winner came from stall 3 and stall 4
“Unlikely to be the favourite, last ran 28+ days ago, has more than one win this year and did NOT record their peak RPR last time out nor has already won a G1. Look to lower draws too”
BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF DIRT – GRADE 1 – 1M 1F
- ALL of the last 10 winners already had more than one win that year
- ALL of the last 5 winners won last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had 4 or more wins at about 9F before
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a G1 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran at 8.5F or 9F last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had won a G1
- 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top 2 or bottom 2 stalls
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top half (2 at DEL MAR: 10 of 11 & 6 of 8)
- The last two winners won the Spinster Stakes (IDIOMATIC won again this year)
“Will have more than one win this year and preferably won last time out. Has 4+ wins at about 9F, has already won a G1 and probably look at the higher drawn runners”
BREEDERS’ CUP TURF – GRADE 1 – 1M 4F
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran at 10F or 12 F last time out
- ALL of the last 6 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a G1
- 8 of the last 10 winners recorded their peak RPR that year
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran in a G1 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had more than one win that year
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from Ireland or Britain
“Ran at 10F or 12F, ideally won and ran in a G1 last time out. Likely to be British or Irish trained, has recorded their best RPR this year and already won a G1”
BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC DIRT – GRADE 1 – 1M 2F
- ALL of the last 10 winners recorded their peak RPR that year
- ALL of the last 10 winners already had more than one win that year
- ALL of the last 10 winners placed top 2 last time out (7 won)
- ALL of the last 10 winners already had won a G1
- 9 of the last 10 winners had raced exclusively on dirt/AW (other had 1 turf run)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won 50% or more of their races that year
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a peak RPR of 123+
“Recorded their best RPR and has more than one win this year. Placed 2 last time out but ideally won. Has already won a G1, has a peak RPR of 123+, has won 50% or more of their races this year and preference to those who have raced exclusively on the dirt/AW”
BREEDERS’S CUP FILLY & MARE TURF – GRADE 1 – 1M 3F
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT sent off favourite (Last winner was)
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a G1 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had won a G1
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran 28 days ago or more
- 7 of the last 10 winners had exactly 2 wins that year
- 6 of the last 10 winners were British or Irish trained
“Probably not the favourite, ran in a G1 last time out and has already won a G1. Ran 28+ days ago and look for British or Irish trained runners and horses with exactly 2 wins this year”
BREEDERS’S CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT DIRT – GRADE 1 – 7F
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had 3 or 4 runs that year (7 won 2 or 3 times)
- 8 of the last 10 winners recorded their peak RPR that year
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had won a G1 or G2
- 7 of the last 10 winners had raced exclusively on dirt/AW
“Has 3 or 4 runs this year, recorded their best RPR this year and has already won a G1 or a G2. Respect those who have raced exclusively on the dirt/AW”
BREEDERS’S CUP MILE TURF – GRADE 1 – 1M
- LAST 3 winners were trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by Will Buick
- TOP 2 at DEL MAR from the 2 runnings in the last 10 came from stalls 5 or lower
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a G1 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners recorded their peak RPR this year (not the last 2)
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had 5 or 6 runs that year
- 8 of the last winners already had won a G1
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 28 days ago
“Look to stalls 5 or lower, ran in a G1 last time out. Has recorded their best RPR this year and has 5 or 6 runs this year. Has already won a G1 and last ran 21-28 days ago”
BREEDERS’S CUP SPRINT DIRT – GRADE 1 – 6F
- ALL of the last 10 winners last ran at 6F or 7F last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners already had more than one win that year
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from; Phoenix Stakes (Keeneland) x4, Forego Stakes (Saratoga) x 3, Sprint Championship (Santa Anita) x2
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had two or more wins at 6F
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out (2 of the last 3 came second LTO)
“Ran at 6F or 7F last time out. Has more than one win this year and has two or more career wins at 6F. Ideally won last time out and look to those coming from the Phoenix Stakes, Forego Stakes or Sprint Championship”
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