One of the biggest races in Britain in terms of final field size, The Cambridgeshire is a well targeted handicap over 9 furlongs in Newmarket. Given the magnitude of this contest, I’ve looked at every winner this century and compared against the last 10 renewals to try and establish what it typically takes to land this race
KEY TRENDS
- Will be no older than 6
- Preference to the top half of the draw and bonus is drawn in 25 or higher
- Carries 9 stone 4 or more
- Holds and OR of 103 to 107
- Ran in a Class 2 handicap at 8 or 10 furlongs last time out
- Doesn’t need to have run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course
- If has run at about 9 furlongs, should really have won too
- Will have 3 or more runs this season and probably no more than 1 win
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 4yo – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
History tells us that the winner of this race will be aged between 3 and 6-years-old. In terms of strike-rate vs number of runners it’s fairly balanced with both 4 and 5-year-olds running at 3%, 3-year-olds running at 4% and 6-year-olds at 5%.
6-year-olds have been profitable to follow blind this century with a £122 level stake profit from 92 runners. They also show a £24 profit in the last decade where 4-year-olds also show a profit, £13 but from 114 qualifiers.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Fourth Favourite – 3/25 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 40/1 or Bigger – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
Favourites are not profitable to back blind and in the last decade 4th favourites have found three times as many winners, providing a 150% ROI. It’s also been profitable to back all runners sent off 22/1 to 40/1 in the last decade for a £14 profit from 94 qualifiers. This century there have been 16 runners sent off between 9/2 and 6/1 and they show just over a 50% ROI if backing blind but again, favourites alone are not profitable to back blind. Those three 4th favourites mentioned earlier all came in the last decade but it’s still profitable if you have tried them blind from the start of this century.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Bottom 3 stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Top 3 stalls – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Stall 1-12 – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Stall 13-24 – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Stall 25+ – 10/25 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)
With such a big field contesting this race it felt worthwhile to split the draw from not only Top and Bottom halves, but into Top, Middle and Bottom too. From the Top/Bottom split the Top comes out best at 63% this century and 80% in the last 10. When we look at the three-tier approach, stalls 25+ are 42% this century and 60% in the last decade. So, preference is certainly for the top half.
WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL RATING
- Carrying 9-4 or more – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Holds an OR of 103 to 107 – 6/25 (24%) & 5/10 (50%)
I’ve focused on the turning trend that has been higher rated horses taking more renewals. In the last decade, you’d show a 60% ROI for backing all runners carrying 9-4 or more and you’d show a 96% ROI for backing all runners with an OR between 103 and 107.
If you combined those two measures, you’d still find all 5 winners from the last 10 renewals, but you’d show a £64 profit from 32 qualifiers at SP for a 200% ROI. Last years’ winner Liberty Lane was the only qualifier!
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at 8 or 10 furlongs – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 4 finish – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Sent off single-figures last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in Class 2 Handicap – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race in at 8 or 10 furlongs last time out and in a Class 2 Handicap. The majority of those finished Top 4 in that last race and you’d want to look at horses who were sent off a single-figure price last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 4/13 (31%) & 1/5 (20%)
Half of winners this century had run at Newmarkets Rowley Mile course, so around as many had NOT. Of those who had run here, less than a third had won here too, so it’s not an essential box to have ticked.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 9f – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at about 9f – 7/11 (64%) & 3/6 (50%)
There aren’t as many 9 furlong races as there are at 8 or 10 so the reality sitting just either side of 50/50 for horses having tried this trip isn’t surprising. The fact that the majority who had tried the trip had won over it too is more telling.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 0 wins this season – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Just 1 win this season – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
The winner of this race is likely to have had 3 or more runs this season but most winners had no more than 1 win this season, but preference goes to those who have won rather than those who hadn’t