This big field handicap at Newmarket has seen many Irish-trained winners over the years. I’ve looked at what it takes to land this prestigious event by comparing trends from this century to the last decade.
KEY TRENDS
- Probably aged between 4 and 7 but respect horses of a double-digit age
- Look to the front 3 in the market
- Look away from high-drawn runners with the ceiling at stall 24
- Look to runners carrying 8-8 or less
- Look to runners with an OR of 83 to 90
- Will have placed Top 6 last time out
- Does not need to have course experience
- Probably has 3 or fewer runs this season and isn’t expected to have won
- Respect Irish Trained runners
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
A real variance for winners of this race this century but it’s worth noting that horses aged 10 and 11 hold the highest strike rates and are both profitable to back blind from just one winner each from 11 runners collectively. 5-year-olds have the worst strike rate this century with just 3 winners from 203 runners. That said, two of those winners came in the last decade from 85 runner’s but they’re still not the highest performing age.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 in the betting – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 8/1 or shorter – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
This century’s results show that it’s difficult to find a sweet spot from price alone. Runners with an SP of 6/1 or shorter are profitable to follow blind but favourites alone are not.
In the last decade favourites have been outperformed by second and third favourites combined but grouping that trio is profitable to back blind. It’s also profitable to back blind all runners who are sent off 8/1 or shorter.
DRAW
- Bottom 3 stalls – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Top 3 stalls – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Stall 1-12 – 13/25 (52%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Stall 13-24 – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Stall 25+ – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
A big field handicap this one but the draw bias is very noticeable. Lower drawn runners seem to have the advantage and this century you’d show an £84 profit from £1 level stakes on the 50 qualifiers if you backed the two lowest drawn runners (after non-runners) blind.
In the last decade that inside due system isn’t profitable but maybe we’re due one? The sweet spot from the last 10 winners has been between stalls 13 and 20 which shows a £52.50 profit blind from 85 runners.
WEIGHT AND OFFICIAL RATING
- Carrying 8-8 or lower – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Holds an OR of 83 to 90 – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
We can find more winners than losers by looking at horses with an OR between 83 and 90 but that alone is not profitable to back blind, but it is only a small loss maker across both periods.
We can find half of the winners by looking only at runners carrying 8-8 or lower. It shows a loss blind this century but a profit in the last decade. It’s possible to improve the performance figures of both ranges by setting a lower weight limit at 8-3.
If we combine the measure of an OR of 83 to 90 and weight carried between 8-3 and 8-8 you would have found 7 winners this century from 137 qualifiers for a 5% strike rate and 5% ROI to SP. In the last decade it would have found 4 winners from 54 qualifiers for a 7.5% strike rate but it’s a -1% ROI to SP. Using Betfair SP though you could spin the last decade into a 72% ROI given last years winner Alphonse Le Grande was sent off at 33/1 SP but 74.69 on Betfair!
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at 2 miles or further – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Top 4 finish – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Sent off 5/1 or shorter last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
A top 4 finish last time out is a good sighter to finding the winner of this race, we can improve from 64% this century to 84% by allowing horses who finish 5th and 6th into the mix. Backing runners who finished either 4th or 6th last time out shows a healthy profit this century.
Most winners will have run at 2 miles or further last time out but it’s not profitable to back that blind. Almost half of winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter last time out but again it’s not profitable to follow blind.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Newmarket Rowley Mile – 2/12 (17%) & 0/4 (0%)
Course experience is not essential here and of those who had been here, very few had won here this century and non from the last decade had been here and won here.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3 runs or fewer this season – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
Most winners of this race, more so in the last decade, had run no more than 3 times this season. With the balance on fewer runs, it’s not surprising that half or more winners had not won this season but it’s not profitable to back blind in the last decade but thanks to some big priced winners this century, it has been to Betfair SP since the turn of the century.
TRAINERS (with winners in the last decade)
- Mullins, WP – 3/30 +£12.50
- Brynes, C – 1/3 +£2
- Charlton, Roger/Harry – 1/4 +£2
- Henderson, N J – 1/2 +£7
- King, A – 1/16 +£35
- Morrison, H – 1/17 -£9
- Mullins, Emmet – 1/4 +£11
- Oleary, Mrs C (Tony Martin) – 1/1 +£33
There are many trainers who are profitable to back blind given the number of runners sent here. It would be tricky to pair a group of these but Irish trainers have taken as many or more renewals as British trainers so it might be worth siding with those.