The first championship race of the Cheltenham Festival and it’s been one with many repeat winners. There have been a few recent shock results when looking at the starting prices of both last year’s winner Golden Ace and the late Espoir D’Allen. They won in deeper renewals with a trio at least of interest at the top of the betting, the same could be true this year with the likes of The New Lion, Brighterdaysahead, Constitution Hill and even Lossiemouth vying for favouritism.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see how straightforward finding the winner of this race might just be.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 6 to 8-years-old but preference goes to 7-year-olds
- Respect favourites, especially those sent off 6/4 or shorter
- Should be rated at least 160+ (including mares’ allowance)
- Should have posted a season peak RPR of 165+ (including mares’ allowance)
- Won last time out and last ran 24 to 51 days ago
- Should have at least placed at a previous Festival but preferably has won
- Must have won 70% or more of their hurdle races
- Expected to be a multiple Grade 1 winner before now
Focussed Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
It’s well known to be a big jump for juveniles stepping into open company and because of that 5-year-olds operate at the lowest strike rate but with only 6-year-olds having a standout bigger number of runners who try.
7-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century and they also hold the highest strike rate at 15%. They’re profitable blind in the last decade too and still hold the highest strike rate of any age but at 16%.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 6/4 or shorter – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind in the last decade showing a 48% ROI which isn’t bad. There have been 6 runners sent off 6/4 or shorter in the last decade and 5 of those won but producing a lower ROI at 38%, still not bad.
It’s not profitable to follow the SP of 6/4 or shorter measure this century and while favourites blind are still profitable over the longer period, they only add £1 but from 16 more qualifiers.
RATINGS – (pre 2008 there are only two measured with an OR)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 15/18 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 12/18 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Season Peak RPR of 165 or more – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
Including the mares’ allowance you’re looking for a runner posting a season peak RPR more than 165 to have standout claims. Their official rating with the same allowances considered should sit at 160 or higher with a preference for 165 plus.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran between 24 and 51 days ago – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
Even including the 5 winners priced 16/1 or bigger, most winners of this race won last time out and 3 of those 5 did too. That’s a requirement and having last run between 24 and 51 days ago is another consistent marker.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had PLACED at The Festival before – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at The Festival before – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners of this race have already run at Cheltenham and winning course form is desirable. What’s more important though is having placed at a previous Festival which this century produces a 24% ROI to SP alone. It’s a loss maker in the last decade for previous Festival placed horses.
Previous Festival winners show a 22% ROI across both periods measured and account for 60% of the winners in each.
HURDLE CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 10 or MORE hurdle runs – 17/25 (68%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had won 70% or MORE of their hurdle races – 16/25 (64%) & 10/10 (100%)
There’s a bit of change in the number of hurdle runs expected of the winner so a better measure to look at horses who have won 70% or more of their hurdle races.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
The two biggest priced winners in the last decade both had yet to land a Grade 1 but all the others bar one had landed more than one Grade 1 before now. The two without a Grade 1 win were multiple Graded winners though so that’s the bare minimum to be expected but Grade 1 preference stands strong here.