Three miles and one furlong and 19 fences to be jumped in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and we’ve seen plenty of top horses land this but probably as many beaten too.
I’ve looked at every renewal this century to see if we can whittle down the field to see who might come out on top this year in what promises to be an excellent renewal.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 6 years old to 9 years old but definitely no older than 10
- Favourites have a bad record in the race, but most winners are single figure prices
- Should have last run over fences and ideally in a Graded race
- Doesn’t have to have course form but if has been round here you’d hope that they’d won
- Probably hasn’t run this season, but if not, they should have won off a 100+ day break before
- Should have 3 or more chase wins and ideally have already won a Grade 2 or better
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
Half of recent winners have been aged 6 or 7 and the other half have been 8 or 9, however, the same splits across this century read as 34% and 54%. Looks as though the 10yo horses, possibly with the Veteran’s series, have other targets in mind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Single-figures – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
You’d certainly be losing money if you were just to back the favourite in this race and with five jollies finishing second and five failing to complete it’s not only a loss maker, but it’s a frustrating one too. Most winners are single figure priced though so; it shouldn’t be too hard to make a case for the winner.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Placed – 9/24 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Graded Race – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 24f-26f – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Over fences –23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 150+ days ago – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Favourite LTO – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners of this did NOT win last time out, the three favourites last time out in the last decade were all beaten favourites too. In fact, most horses didn’t even place on their last start, but most did run in Graded company and all bar one winner this century last ran over fences. Interestingly, less than half of winners ran at 3m to 3m2f last time out, and this being over 3m 1f I was a little surprised by that.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Wetherby – 10/24 (42%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had WON at Wetherby – 7/10 (70%) & 2/2 (100%)
I’d say that it’s expected that most winners haven’t raced at Wetherby before. It’s a decent track but there are more options elsewhere through the season. That said, it’s also expected that those who have raced here had mostly won here too. It’s not an easy track and if a horse has been here and NOT run well then that’s a Red Flag.
DISTANCE FORM (3M to 3M 2F)
- Winners who had RUN at 24-26F – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 24F-26F – 19/22 (86%) & 6/9 (67%)
Most winners had run at a furlong either side of this 3 mile 1 furlong trip and of those most had won too. The majority had 3 or more runs at about this trip so that’s worth noting rather than just running at the trip full stop.
SEASON FORM
- Had run this season – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won this season – 1/6 (17%) & 1/4 (25%)
- Had won off 100+ day break – 16/18 (89%) & 5/6 (83%)
Being an early season feature race it’s no surprise that most winners come in here fresh. Those who have prepped are not expected to have won, but those who haven’t run this season should have won before from a 100+ day break. The only two who hadn’t, were Grey Abbey who hadn’t won off 50+ day breaks either and Bristol De Mai who was twice second off 100+ day breaks, but 3 wins from 3 for 50-100 day breaks.
CAREER FORM
- 3 or more Chase wins – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 11 or more Chase starts – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had won a Graded race – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race had already won a Graded race of some description and most had won at least a Grade 2. Most winners also have 3 or more Chase wins to their name already and two thirds had made 11 or more Chase starts in their career to date.
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