There are 19 fences to be jumped in the Charlie Hall Chase, and we’ve seen plenty of top horses both win and lose this race.
I’ve looked at every renewal this century to see if we can whittle down the field to see who might come out on top this year.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 6 years old to 9 years old
- Likely to be sent off between 5/2 and 6/1
- 50/50 if a horse comes here fresh but those who do should have winning fresh form
- Probably did NOT win last time out
- Should have 3 or more runs at between 24-26 furlongs including a win
- Probably has won a Grade 1
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
Backing 6, 7 and 8-year-olds blind this century shows a profit for each and would have found two-thirds of the winners. 10-year-olds can win this race, but they are the biggest loss makers to follow blind this century and there has been no winner that age since 2004.
In the last decade, 6 and 7-year-olds are again profitable to back blind and it’s 8-year-olds who have the lowest winning strike rate.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5/2 to 6/1 – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (90%)
This century, the bulk of winners have been sent off between 5/2 and 6/1 and third favourites are the winning-most market position with over a 90% ROI if following blind.
In the last decade there have been 5 horses sent off 6/4 or shorter and all of those lost. There was one winner from 5 who was priced between 13/8 and 9/4. Favourites have a poor record but second and third favourites account for 7 of the last 10 winners and are profitable to follow blind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Graded Race – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 23.5f-26f – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Over fences –24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 150+ days ago – 18/25 (72%) & 5/10 (50%)
There have been 6 winner this century who won last time out but that’s a small loss maker to follow blind. 4 winners placed second last time out and they show a 110% ROI if following blind this century. 2 winners from 4 runners unseated last time out for a 150% ROI, but a small sample size.
It used to be a race dominated by horses who had NOT run that season with 14 of the first 16 winners this century coming here fresh. While that had turned in recent years, horses who came here fresh had a good record fresh too. Only Grey Abbey in 2004 hadn’t won after a break and only Bristol De Mai hadn’t won off a 100+ day break, but he was twice second and had won multiple times of 50-100 day breaks.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Wetherby – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had WON at Wetherby – 7/10 (70%) & 2/2 (100%)
It’s expected that horses who have raced here should have won and while running well is an obvious positive to mention for most tracks, it’s significant to be wary of horses who do NOT run this track well on previous visits as that typically doesn’t change.
DISTANCE FORM (3M to 3M 2F)
- Winners who had RUN at 24-26F – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 24F-26F – 20/23 (87%) & 7/9 (78%)
Distance form is important but it’s worth noting that most winners had 3 or more runs at a furlong either side of 25 furlongs with most of those having won at about the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had run this season – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had won this season – 1/7 (14%) & 1/5 (20%)
- Had won off a 100+ day break – 16/18 (89%) & 4/5 (80%)
Lots of horses in the past have won this race fresh, as mentioned earlier. The turning trend now seems to be that whatever suits a horse suits a horse. Those who come here fresh are expected to be able to win fresh, and those who come in from a prep run are expected to historically benefit from that run.
CAREER FORM
- 3 or more Chase wins – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 11 or more Chase starts – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Graded race – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
The constant measures from career form seem to be having 3 or more chase wins and to have included a previous Graded race victory too. 8 of the last 11 winners had.