An impressive chase debut has got Matty Sutcliffe dreaming of big things for a Willie Mullins superstar, who could even be an outside shout for the Gold Cup…
Brown Advisory Novices Chase – Ballyburn 4/1 2pt WIN (Also 1pt WIN for the Gold Cup at 40/1 with UniBet)
We’re into the fifth week now of our Cheltenham ante-post portfolio, which seems a reasonable point to briefly recap where we stand so far.
It was brilliant to see The New Lion back up his debut success with a cosy three-length win at the weekend under a penalty, in a race that’s been won by the likes of Stay Away Fay, Stage Star, Bravemansgame and Santini in the past. The Kayf Tara gelding had some worthy opponents in Califet En Vol for Henderson who’d actually posted a pound higher RPR (132) on hurdles debut than The New Lion, and also the four-year-old French Ship, who lowered the colours of the well regarded Let It Rain (pair pulled 19L clear, LIR won next time out) prior to his fourth here.
All roads will lead to the Challow for The New Lion, and he’s a best priced 16/1 for the Gallagher’s Novices’ Hurdle now, from the initial 25/1 advised.
Bravesmansgame has gone the other way in the Ryanair market, with Paul Nicholls seemingly plotting a route to the Grand National. He was dropped 6lbs after his staying on third in a gruelling Betfair Chase, and is now on a mark of 159, which proved suitable for last year’s winner I am Maximus. I thought there were two ways of looking at that Betfair Chase from Bravesmansgames perspective – the first being visually, he looked as if the National trip might be within reach as he did stay on well in the final furlong. On the contrary, you could argue he was merely staying on once beaten and only came back to the other two briefly as a result of his natural class. I’m very surprised they ran him in that ground in truth, but it was further evidence that he’s not entirely gone at the game. I still think a drop back in trip to the Ryanair is worth exploring, it’s just keeping him engaged enough early on to maintain a prominent position. I think if they’re going to run in the National, they’d be insane to ruin his chances in a Gold Cup as a prep, and perhaps the Ryanair would be a more convenient route for him as it could go one of two ways, either he truly needs 4m2f and will be beaten fairly, or will spring a surprise and fair well as I initially thought he might. Given the weights will already be confirmed, it wouldn’t matter should he win either.
Onto our Arkle shouts, and since playing Iberico Lord and Impaire Et Passe, the pair have come out and won their chase debuts impressively. Iberico Lord epitomised why the UK needs more Beginners’ Chases/a refined route for high class novice chasers, as the Cokoriko gelding is a work in progress. As Henderson said in his post-race interview, he jumped the first few like a hurdler and the last three as a seasoned chaser. I was very impressed with him in the latter stages, and if he can improve on that then I’d still be confident we see him in the Arkle. He boasts class and speed, and is already a course winner having landed the Greatwood last season.
Impaire Et Passe was pushed out in the Arkle market after winning over 2m5f on chase debut at the weekend, which I thought was a poor reflection of his chances come March. The Turners would’ve been ideal for him, but with that now a handicap, he’s only got the Arkle and the Brown’s as his options should connections go to the Festival with him (surprised if they don’t, given he was an impressive Ballymore winner). He won what was effectively a crawl and sprint at Fairyhouse on chase debut, going to sleep in the early part, which wouldn’t be a positive for a strongly run three mile affair in the Brown’s as it will have more an emphasis on stamina, which I don’t think he has in reserves. Willie Mullins loves one who’s raced over further prior to winning an Arkle, such as Gaelic Warrior, Duc De Geneivres, Footpad and Un De Sceaux, and given he was sharp enough to be beaten three lengths when 7/4 (below best) behind State Man in the Matheson, and still boasted that speed over fences, I’d be very surprised should they not drop him back for the Arkle. I wouldn’t put anyone off going back in at 20/1.
Monty’s Star was put up last week, and not a whole lot has changed since.
There’s not a whole lot else to go on for the championship/novice races at this stage particularly at a value price, but I really want to be on the side of BALLYBURN. While he’s not devoid of speed, I don’t think that’s his best asset and I think the market’s have got him all wrong regarding his target in March. I know that Gaelic Warrior was rerouted to the Arkle having won the same Beginners Chase as Ballyburn last month, but the pair are two separate entities.
Gaelic Warrior was a French acquisition, debuting for Willie Mullins in the Boodles over two miles and he was too keen for his own good in the Ballymore when outstayed by stalemate Impaire Et Passe. Gaelic Warrior is by Maxios, who typically gets two millers-2m5f sorts, and he’s out of a flat bred mare. While he was classy enough to stay three miles at Punchestown over hurdles, his pedigree logically suggested that he could cope with dropping back for an Arkle, where you generally need something proven to stay.
Ballyburn could easily end up in an Arkle, but you have to wonder why they didn’t place him in a Supreme last season. His chase debut smacked to me of a horse who is a pure galloper. He wasn’t particularly slick or exuberant over his fences, but more assured, measured and economical. He is undoubtedly a future Gold Cup horse as opposed to a Champion Chaser, and given he’s a six-year-old turning seven, they’ll want to build up to a Gold Cup sooner rather than later. He has all the qualities you want in a horse built for the pinnacle of National Hunt racing and given he’s by Flemensfirth out of an Old Vic mare, he’s bred to be a pure stayer.
With that in mind, I think the general 4/1 for the Browns represents excellent value over the 7/4 for an Arkle, as not only do I think he’ll line up in the former, he’s going to go off evens or under wherever he shows up.
The other slight inkling I have is that they might take their chances and actually line up in the Gold Cup. Coneygree became the first novice to win a Gold Cup in over forty years, and to my recollection, there hasn’t been another to try it. I don’t think Ballyburn is your average novice. His record reads 111211111, unbeaten in points/bumpers, and Willie Mullins has won the Gold Cup with two seven year olds in the past six years.
Granted both Al Boum Photo and Galopin Des Champs had ran at the Festival as a novice chaser before (coincidentally both fell), but neither of those boasted the class of Ballyburn did over hurdles, and you could argue that Ballyburn has a more stamina laden pedigree built for a Gold Cup. Flemensfirth sired the 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, the 2020 third Lost In Translation, and the Flemensfirth x Old Vic cross has produced stayers such as Minella Cocooner, Noble Endeavour and Minella Daddy, so staying is his game and I’d be amazed if Ballyburn isn’t seen over three miles in March.
To my knowledge, the Gold Cup hasn’t even been mentioned by the Mullins camp for Ballyburn, and while there’s probably a 1% chance he goes, at 40/1 (with Unibet only, though he’s worth a quid at much bigger on the Exchange!) he’s worth a point as I firmly believe he’s capable of putting up a big effort if going, for all the Brown Advisory is the most logical option for now.
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