As more and more National Hunt stars begin to make their return, we continue to look forward by looking back ahead of some of the big races of the 2024/25 season.
This is a look at last season’s Cheltenham Festival winners from Wednesday, as we map out the route ahead for each of them.
Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle – Ballyburn
Ante-Post Prices
- Arkle: 5/2 generally
- Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase: 6/1 SkyBet
- Champion Hurdle: 10/1 generally
- Stayers’ Hurdle: 14/1 generally
Though stablemates State Man and Galopin Des Champs claimed championship races in some style, there was no more exciting Cheltenham Festival winner last season than Ballyburn, who hacked up in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle back in March. He was 13 lengths clear of the runner-up without Paul Townend having to crouch below neutral.
That was a third win in succession after a surprising hurdles debut defeat to Firefox, but though he ended the season in more workmanlike fashion at Punchestown, he is among the most intriguing darts Willie Mullins has to throw this term, which is saying something. His ante-post quotes say a lot as to his likely direction, even with Mullins bingo factored into account. He could make 10/1 quotes for the Champion Hurdle or 14/1 for the Stayers’ look very silly, but with Mullins catered for largely in both respects, novice chasing should prove his calling.
The lack of the Turners in 2025 does mean he will have to either drop to 2m, though he won so impressively at the Dublin Racing Festival at that trip against Supreme winner Slade Steel, or step up to 3m, as may one day be his calling. Mullins is unlikely to be swayed early: Gaelic Warrior (2m3f) and Fact To File (2m4f) won the Arkle and Brown Advisory respectively after starting out at interim distances.
It will likely be up to Mullins’ other battalions to make up his mind, as Ballyburn will surely tackle whichever division he lacks significant back-up. At this stage, the Arkle sits in position number one, though this champion elect’s flexibility must be considered.
Predicted Cheltenham Festival Race: Arkle
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Fact To File
Ante-Post Prices
- Gold Cup – 4/1 Paddy Power/Betfair
- Ryanair Chase – 16/1 generally
Should Fact To File not turn up in the Gold Cup on Friday, 14th March 2025, something will have gone wrong.
He enjoyed a strikingly similar season to Ballyburn last season. In novice chases, he was a beaten odds-on favourite on debut before remaining unbeaten thereafter, culminating in easy successes at both the Dublin Racing and Cheltenham Festivals. He is not as obviously flashy as that stablemate is over hurdles, but he was not hard pressed to beat Monty’s Star in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase when facing 3m for the first time.
There are no early entries for him, meaning we will not see him in Down Royal’s Champion Chase, though he could be Mullins’ go-to for the John Durkan at Punchestown given Galopin Des Champs’ turnover there last term, as well as in the Punchestown Gold Cup. The dual Cheltenham Gold Cup hero clearly forgoes his best going right-handed, whereas that is yet to be discovered with this unexposed seven-year-old.
Avoiding a clash between his two Gold Cup favourites may be almost impossible before the Festival. They could be split by the Savills Chase and King George, with Fact To File probably the more likely option for the latter, though there is also Gaelic Warrior for Kempton. As a result, this incredibly talented hopeful may be the stop gap at times before Cheltenham, at which only one race can be his destiny.
Predicted Race: Gold Cup
Coral Cup – Langer Dan
Ante-Post Prices
- Coral Cup – 10/1 generally
- Stayers’ Hurdle – 25/1 generally
Dan Skelton has finally played his hand regarding Langer Dan. His handicap tinkering proved to be both the best and worst kept secret in racing as the eight-year-old surged to a second straight Coral Cup success at the 2024 Festival, making a mockery of appearing in the race off the same mark as 12 months prior.
Secret now brazenly out in the open, Langer Dan nearly followed up by winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle, just two starts after finishing 14th of 19 in Kempton’s Lanzarote Hurdle off a mark of 143 in handicap company. Yes I am emphasising a point.
Nevertheless, this is a talented horse for a trainer who carried the home side through much of the Festival last term. Coral Cup quotes of 10/1 look ludicrous considering he is rated 19lb higher than his two winning marks in the race and has subsequently made the frame in Graded company twice. Skelton has already stated his consideration of the Stayers’ Hurdle, but intermediate trips may be the way beforehand, with Aintree’s open class 2 hurdle during the Grand Sefton meeting a possible starting point as it was two seasons back.
Predicted Race: Stayers’ Hurdle
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Captain Guinness
Ante-Post Prices
- Champion Chase: 20/1 generally
In this era of small fields, it is very unusual for a nine-year-old to win their first Grade 1 in open company at the Cheltenham Festival. Little was ordinary about Captain Guinness’ Champion Chase triumph though, in which 2/9 favourite El Fabiolo fell by the wayside early and leading British hope Edwardstone careered off in front before shooting his bolt up the home straight.
Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old is a talented horse, but while his trainer and rider Rachael Blackmore credited the horse for getting his day in the spotlight, it was an unsatisfactory outcome all things considered. Remarkably, the Punchestown Festival presented him with a decent opening of an unlikely Grade 1 double up, only for him to get collared on the line by Banbridge.
His only ante-post offering is the Champion Chase according to the bookmakers, which is no surprise given he has never ventured beyond 2m1f in trip. Should the Ryanair Chase look open, there could be cause to attempt a step up in distance, but a similar season to last term, opening at Navan’s Grade 2 Fortria Chase followed by Leopardstown’s pair of 2m Grade 1s, would be no surprise.
Predicted Race: Champion Chase
Grand Annual Handicap Chase – Unexpected Party
Ante-Post Prices
- Grand Annual – 16/1 generally
- Champion Chase – 50/1 generally
Showing that Dan Skelton could play ball with other horses than Langer Dan, Unexpected Party was indeed less expected when ridden clear to win the 2024 Grand Annual at 12/1. Unlike his stablemate, he had won a Listed novice chase earlier that term, though his form thereafter of 5549, the last three figures representing finishes of last place of those who finished each time, ensured he dropped 8lb in the handicap to his golden mark of 138.
Perhaps it was the 2m trip which saved him, but the Listed success came over just shy of 2m4f. A combination of factors may have benefitted him more on the day, but he was pulled up at Aintree on his final start when all 8lb had been added back to his rating.
He was given an early entry over hurdles by Dan Skelton which was not taken up, but that might speak to the yard’s mindset this term. He is not priced up for any Cheltenham hurdles contests, while he is also 50/1 for an ambitious tilt at the Champion Chase. However, going against the bookies, a handicap hurdle would exactly the kind of plot Skelton may love to pull, and his timber mark is 5lb lower than for chasing.
Predicted Race: County Hurdle
Champion Bumper – Jasmin De Vaux
Ante-Post Prices
- Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle – 10/1 SkyBet
- Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 SkyBet
- Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 20/1 Paddy Power/Betfair
It has felt like a while since the winner of the Champion Bumper did not carry an obscenely lofty reputation into the following campaign. For the first time since Relegate it might be the case though, as Jasmin De Vaux flopped at Punchestown after remaining unbeaten at Cheltenham, and has not been heralded with the same awe as some of his predecessors.
He holds the accolade of being Willie Mullins’ 100th Cheltenham Festival winner after holding off Romeo Coolio for his Grade 1 honours, but even then it was considered a wide open race and that he was barely at the top of Mullins’ brigade. A diminutive horse, his blow-out at Punchestown does raise concerns about his mettle for a future over any obstacles.
He is nevertheless among the early pacesetters in the market for the Grade 1 novice hurdle events at next year’s Festival. It is the 2m5f Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle currently holding sway narrowly, but the Supreme feels like the traditional follow-up, especially as he looks a wiry, speedier type.
Following the Ballyburn route with a 2m debut around the time of Fairyhouse’s Hatton’s Grace meeting should be expected. If he wins, sticking to that distance looks a certainty, with the 2m Dublin Racing Festival Grade 1 likely to precede the Supreme.
Predicted Race: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
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