Matthew Sutcliffe has given his latest insight into the Cheltenham Festival’s ante-post markets and has decided to take the price about an Arkle hope who may be running this weekend at Sandown…
Arkle – Lump Sum 33/1 1pt EW 3 places
The Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown this Saturday has long proved a solid foundation for an Arkle challenger. Last year’s winner L’Eau Du Sud was beaten a length in the race last season, Jonbon was second to El Fabiolo, Edwardstone landed the double in 2021/22, the first and second from the 2020 renewal finished second and fourth respectively to Shishkin, and Altior also completed the Sandown/Cheltenham double in 2016.
Lulamba is the clear second favourite to pose a threat to Kopek Des Bordes in this years’ Arkle at this stage, and while we already have July Flower at 16/1 (price still the same), I’d like to get Lump Sum on side prior to the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase this weekend as I thought his chase debut didn’t receive nearly enough plaudits, and should he serve it up to Lulamba, who was far from foot perfect himself at Exeter, then the 33’s will disappear immediately.
The son of Authorized was a smart novice hurdler with form figures of 11215, picking up Grade Two honours in the process with the sole blip came at Aintree in the Top Novices, and that end of season form can often have a line drawn through it. He reappeared last season with a win in the Welsh Champion Hurdle before an excellent eight length second to Sir Gino in the Fighting Fifth, faring much the best of the closers having been keen throughout.
He was no match for Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle, but he got back on track with a second in the old Betfair at Newbury with a solid effort off top weight, giving 21lbs to the handicap blot in Joyeuse.
There’s the suspicion that connections are stuck between a rock and a hard place with him regarding whether he’s merely a high class handicapper who falls short at the top level in graded contests, but there was enough to suggest on his chase debut that fences could springboard him to securing his place in the higher echelons of National Hunt racing.
Sent off the 10/11 favourite at Uttoxeter, he settled in behind the formerly progressive hurdler in Jax Junior and the pair jumped soundly throughout. Lump Sum was perhaps a touch safe over the first two fences and somewhat bunny hopped the fourth, but his subsequent seven fences were fairly flawless. Given how foot perfect Jax Junior was from the front throughout, I was impressed with how Lump Sum swept by him two out with consummate ease, completing the last two furlongs four seconds quicker than that one to win by a widening 16 lengths.
There is a case to made that Jax Junior blew up late on, but he did at least frank that form over 2m2f at Kempton next time out, which wouldn’t be all that dissimilar in terms of the pace required to possess around 2m at Uttoexter, when beating Jeriko Du Reponet 12 lengths there.
Lump Sum recorded a career best RPR of 149 there, 4lbs higher than what both Lulamba and Be Aware achieved on their chase debuts. With natural progression, not only can Lump Sum give Lulamba a tough race on Saturday but I think 33/1 seriously underestimates his chances in March given the lack of challengers toward the head of the market bar the obvious in Kopek Des Bordes, and hopefully he can solidify those credentials this weekend.
FAQs: Cheltenham Festival ante-post tips
When & where is the Arkle Challenge Trophy run?
The Arkle Chase will take place on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 2.00pm at the Cheltenham Festival.
When was this Cheltenham ante-post tip published?
The Arkle ante-post tip was published at 11.30am on Wednesday 3 December 2025.
Who is Matty Sutcliffe?
Matty Sutcliffe is one of GG’s newest contributors and is now a regular guest on our flagship Weekend Watch podcast. His angle is value bets, making him a perfect fit for our Cheltenham Festival ante-post series.
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