Day two of the Cheltenham Festival 2026 includes the Queen Mother Champion Chase. It is also known as Ladies’ Day.
Dave Young toasts one of the most glamorous days of the meeting. He has analysed the stats and trends for every race on Wednesday at Cheltenham, which you can find below.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
- The last 12 winners had no more than 3 runs over hurdles
- 16 of the last 17 winners held an OR of 146+
- 15 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper
- 7 of the last 8 winners last ran 66 days ago or less
- 19 of the last 21 winners came from the first 4 in the market
- 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6-years-old
- 14 of the last 17 had won a Graded Hurdle
- 9 of the last 12 winners had exactly 3 runs over hurdles
- 21 of the last 25 winners were single-figure prices
- 21 of the last 25 winners won last time out
- 13 of the last 17 were the first or second highest rated runner
- Just 3 winners older than 6 since the race formed in 1971 (curiously, each 24 years apart; 1974, 1998, 2022)
- Respect favourites priced 6/4 or shorter
“No more than and preferably exactly 3 runs over hurdles, ran in the last 10 weeks, Top 4 in the betting, aged 6 with an OR of 143+, has won a Graded Hurdle and also won last time out”
Trends Pick – BALLYFAD
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
- 10 of the last 11 winners held an OR of between 150 and 159
- 23 of the last 25 winners finished first or second last time out
- 19 of the last 21 winners had already run at Cheltenham
- 17 of the last 19 winners placed 1st or 2nd in a G2 or better over fences
- 27 of the last 31 winners had no more than one season over hurdles
- 16 of the last 19 winners were 7yo’s
- 21 of the last 25 winners had not finished outside the Top 3 over fences
- 23 of the last 28 winners had run and won over 23-25 furlongs
- Only 5 winners from the last 26 were unbeaten that season
- Only 4 winners from the last 26 had less than 3 chase runs
- No winning second favourite since 2012 and 2000 before that
- No winner in headgear this century
“Has an OR of 150 to 159, Top 2 last time out, has run at Cheltenham and has placed Top 2 in a Grade 2 or better over fences. Only one season hurdling, age 7 and not the second favourite or sporting headgear”
Trends Pick – WESTERN FOLD
Coral Cup
- 15 of the last 16 winners had no more than one win that season
- 14 of the last 15 winners had run at 19-21 furlongs
- 19 of the last 21 winners had 2-4 wins over hurdles
- 18 of the last 21 winners had their last run more than 31 days ago
- 13 of the last 16 winners had run at Cheltenham
- 19 of the last 25 winners had run less than 10 times over hurdles
- 12 of the last 16 winners didn’t win last time out
- Just 1 winning favourite in the last 22 years
- Just 5 winners since 1993 won in headgear with 4 in sequence from 2019 to 2022
“No more than one win this season, has run at 19-21f, has 2-4 wins over hurdles, last ran more than 31 days ago, did not win last time out and probably not in headgear”
Trends Pick – TBC
Cross Country – (Only considering Handicap renewals)
- 9 of the 12 winners had fallen in their career (another had unseated)
- 9 of the 12 winners held an Official Rating of 143 or lower
- 9 of the 12 winners came from the Top 3 in the market
- 9 of the 12 winners were aged 8 to 10-years-old
- 8 of the 12 winners last run at Cheltenham or Punchestown
- Only 1 runner rated 154+ from 7 who tried won
- Runners priced 4/1 and shorter have been profitable to back blind
- The only 4 winners to have carried 11 stone or more carried the Top Weight
- There have been 5 Top Weights sent off 4/1 or shorter and 4 won
“Carrying less than 11 stone or the top weight, likely priced 4/1 or shorter, aged 8-10, with an OR of 143 or lower and has fallen in their career”
Trends Pick – TBC
Champion Chase
- The last 6 winners were all beaten last time out
- 16 of the last 17 winners had previously run at Cheltenham
- 13 of the last 14 winners came from the Top 3 in the market
- 19 of the last 21 winners ran 2-3 times that season
- 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 9-years-old or younger
- 21 of the last 24 winners had already won a Grade 1 Chase
- 20 of the last 23 winners ran this calendar year
- 10 of the last 13 odds-on favourites have been beaten
- No winner in headgear for over 30 years
“Has run at Cheltenham, from the Top 3 in the betting, aged 9 or younger with 2-3 runs this season having run this calendar year, has won a Grade 1 chase and not sporting headgear”
Trends Pick – MARINE NATIONALE / IL ETAIT TEMPS
Grand Annual
- 12 of the last 13 winners last ran 38 days ago or more
- 22 of the last 24 winners had no more than one win that season
- 20 of last 22 winners did NOT win last time out
- 19 of the last 21 winners hadn’t wont a Handicap Chase that season
- 22 of the last 26 carried less than 11 stone 5 pounds
- 11 of the last 16 winners were not in the top 5 in the market
- Respect runners who have been beaten in the race before (8 winners from last 20)
“Last ran 38 or more days ago, no more than one win this season, did not win last time out, hasn’t won a Handicap chase this season and carrying less than 11-05”
Trends Pick – TBC
Champion Bumper
- The last 22 winners won last time out
- The last 11 winners had won in double-figure sized bumper fields
- The last 11 winners had a best RPR of 124 or higher
- 19 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in February
- 26 of the last 33 winners were Irish Trained
“Won last time out, has won in a double-figure sized field, has recorded an RPR of 124 or higher, is aged 5 or 6, last ran in February and probably Irish Trained”
Trends Pick – TBC
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