The third day of the Cheltenham Festival is St Patrick’s Thursday. It is a celebration of the Irish, who have also dominated on this day in recent seasons.
Dave Young has analysed every contest on the new day three schedule at Cheltenham. He runs through all of the trends for the seven races on the Thursday card.
Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
- All the 10 winners were aged either 5 or 6-years-old
- 8 of the 10 winners had 2-4 runs over hurdles this season
- 8 of the 10 winners last ran between 28 and 47 days ago
- 7 of the 10 winners had an OR of 135 or higher (2 held no OR the other was 124)
- 7 of the 10 winners were Irish Trained
- 6 of the 10 winners had at least four runs over hurdles
- 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
- Last 7 winners were priced 9/2 or bigger
- Last 6 winners were 6-year-olds
- 7-year-olds are 0 from 21
“Is aged 5 or 6, has 2-4 runs over hurdles this season and last ran between 28 and 47 days ago. Has an OR of 135 or higher, Irish trained and probably priced 9/2 or bigger”
Trends Pick – TBC
Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase
New race for 2025 so no trends viable for this as the previous Novices’ Handicap had a rating ceiling.
Mares’ Hurdle
- 15 of the last 17 had won over at least 2m 4f
- 15 of the last 17 winners had won 50% or more of their races
- 9 of the last 11 had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 11 winners had won that season
- 9 of the last 11 winners last ran between 31 and 50 days ago
- 14 of the 18 winners were aged 5 to 7-years-old
- 13 of the 18 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 11 winners were NOT the highest rated runner
- Preferably has won 50% or more of their hurdle races
- Has won a Grade 2 or better before now
- Previous Mares Novice Hurdle winners are yet to win this
“Has won over at least 20f, has won 50% or more of their races, has 2 or more runs this season, has won this season, last ran between 31 and 50 days ago and is aged 5 to 7”
Trends Pick – LOSSIEMOUTH
Stayers’ Hurdle
- 21 of the last 22 winners had an OR of 152 or higher
- 17 of the 18 winners aged 7 or older had already won a Grade 1
- 23 of the last 25 had at least placed in a Grade 1 3m hurdle
- 20 of the last 25 winners were aged 6-8
- 19 of the last 25 winners were in the top 4 of the market
- Since 1992 only 1 winner with headgear from 93 who have tried
- Since 2004 just 2 winners have won after being beaten in the race
- The 7 winners aged 6-years-old this century all had an OR of 157 or higher
“Has an OR of 152 or higher, has already won a Grade 1 and has at least placed in a Grade 1 3m hurdle, aged 6 to 8 and not sporting headgear”
Trends Pick – IMPOSE TOI
Ryanair Chase
- ALL the last 14 winners were aged 7-9
- ALL the last 14 winners had a season peak RPR of 165+
- 17 of the last 18 winners were rated over 160
- 17 of the last 18 winners were single-figure prices
- 10 of the last 11 winners had already won that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran 40 to 80 days ago
- 15 of the last 18 winners had at least placed at The Festival before
- 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase
- Only 3 of the 21 winners came from outside the Top 3 in the betting
“Has a season peak RPR of 165 or higher, aged 7 to 9, has an OR of 160 or higher, single figure priced and probably from the Top 3 in the betting, last ran 40 to 80 days ago”
Trends Pick – TBC
Pertemps Final
- 22 of the last 23 winners had no more than one win over 3 miles plus
- 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or younger
- 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie (150% ROI to SP)
- 11 of the last 14 winners ran in the last 39 days
- 17 of the last 22 winners were sent off a double-figure price
- 11 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-146
- Just 1 of the last 8 winners had won that season
- Just 2 winners this century won their qualifier (none in last 11)
“Has no more than one win over 3m plus, is aged 8 or younger, ran in the last 39 days, is a double-figure price, probably hasn’t won this season, didn’t win their qualifier and respect tongue-tied runners”
Trends Pick – TBC
Kim Muir
- 18 of the last 19 winners had 2 or fewer wins over fences
- 21 of the last 23 winners did NOT win last time out
- 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 7-9
- 14 of the last 17 winners carried at least 11 stone 4
- 16 of the last 21 winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs
- 12 of the last 17 winners had run in February
- JP McManus is 3 from 13 with his first string (16% ROI) and 0 from 12 with the rest
“Has 2 or fewer wins chase wins, did not win last time out, is aged 7 to 9 and look to those carrying at least 11-04. Only respect the lowest priced JP McManus runner”
Trends Pick – TBC
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