Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Trends 2026

Day four at the Cheltenham Festival features jumps racing’s blue riband event. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the headline contest among a seven-race card.

Dave Young’s final daily trends article looks at all seven of those contests in more depth to help guide you towards the likely winners on Cheltenham’s final day.

Triumph Hurdle

ALL of the last 16 winners did NOT wear headgear
24 of the last 25 winners last ran 55 days ago or less
16 of the last 18 winners had 3 or fewer runs this season
19 of the last 22 winners had NOT run at Cheltenham (3 that had were unbeaten here)
14 of the last 19 winners had an OR of 139 or higher (other 5 had no OR)
14 of the last 20 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter
The last 6 winners were Irish trained
10 winners this century have come from the Spring Juvenile but only 3 won both

“Not sporting headgear, last ran 55 days ago or less, no more than 3 runs this season, has not run at Cheltenham or is unbeaten here and carries an OR of at least 139 or none at all. Likely to be Irish Trained and respect all Spring Juvenile runners”

Trends Pick – NARCISO HAS

County Hurdle

ALL of the last 19 winners were aged 5, 6 or 8-years-old
11 of the last 12 winners had NOT won at Cheltenham
10 of the last 11 winners came from Dan Skelton or Willie Mullins
19 of the last 23 winners were in their first or second season hurdling
14 of the last 17 winners had an OR of 134 to 141
13 of the last 19 winners were Irish Trained
The only 2 winners in the last 16 renewals both wore hoods and were trained by Willie Mullins

“Will be aged 5, 6 or 8-years-old, probably hasn’t already won at Cheltenham, probably trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton and probably in their first or second season of hurdling”

Trends Pick – TBC

Mares’ Chase

ALL of the 5 winners were aged 7 or 8-years-old
ALL of the 5 winners won last time out
ALL of the 5 winners had 3 runs that season
ALL of the 5 winners were Irish trained
ALL of the 5 winners were priced 3/1 or shorter
ALL of the 5 winners held an OR of 147 or higher
4 of the 5 winners had run at a previous festival
3 of the 5 winners were second favourite
3 of the 5 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
3 of the 5 winners carried a penalty

“Aged 7 or 8, won last time out, has 3 runs this season, Irish trained and preferably by Willie Mullins. Priced 3/1 or shorter with an OR of 147 or higher and has run at a previous Cheltenham Festival”

Trends Pick – DINOBLUE

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

20 of the 21 winners placed top 4 last time out
20 of the 21 winners were 7-years-old or younger
13 of the last 14 winners had run and won at 23-25 furlongs
18 of the 21 winners ran in a Graded hurdle last time out
16 of the 21 winners had 4 or fewer runs over hurdles
10 winners had previously been to Cheltenham and 8 of those had won there
The last 7 winners were Irish trained
Last time out winners are a huge loss maker (-63% ROI)
Horses who placed 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th last time out are profitable to back blind (108% ROI)
9 winners were sent off between 14/1 and 40/1 which is profitable blind (48% ROI)

“Placed Top 4 last time out and in a Graded Hurdle, has won at 23-25 furlongs, is 7 or younger and has 4 or fewer runs over hurdles. Probably Irish trained and if has been to Cheltenham before they should have won”

Trends Pick – KAZANSKY

Gold Cup

24 of the last 25 winners were 7 to 9-years-old
24 of the last 25 winners did NOT wear headgear
23 of the last 25 winners held an OR of 164 or higher
21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 25 had at least placed at The Festival before
21 of the last 25 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
No winner since 2000 had run in The Cotswold Chase

“Aged 7 to 9-years-old, not sporting headgear and has an OR of 164 or higher. Ideally finished Top 2 last time out, has at least placed at The Festival before and comes from the Top 3 in the betting”

Trends Pick – THE JUKEBOX MAN

Hunters’ Chase

15 of the last 16 winners had been beaten that season
16 of the last 18 winners placed 3^rd or better last time out
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 10 or 11 (not the last two)
13 of the last 16 winners last run in a hunter chase under rules

“Has been beaten this season, placed 3^rd or better last time out and is probably aged 10 or 11-years-old”

Trends Pick – TBC

Martin Pipe

16 of the 17 winners were NOT the favourite (last winning favourite was in 2011)
15 of the 17 winners were aged 5 or 6
15 of the 17 winners had 8 or fewer runs over hurdles
13 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
14 of the 17 winners last raced within 55 days
14 of the 17 winners had an OR of 137 or higher
9 of the last 15 winners won last time out (profitable blind 35% ROI)
8 of the last 15 winners were either trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott and only 4 were the first string

“Probably NOT the favourite, aged 5 or 6 with 8 or fewer runs over hurdles. Placed Top 3 last time out but preferably won, last ran inside 55 days and holds an OR of 137 or higher”

Trends Pick – TBC

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