Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Trends 2026

We are within a month of the start of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. The time for form studying and analysing has begun in earnest ahead of the greatest four days in the sport.

Dave Young is here to help you along that journey. As he does every year, he has created a detailed look at every race on a trends basis. You can find the rundown of these below, to point you towards this year’s day one winners.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The last 18 winners all had a season peak RPR of 142+
16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6
13 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
14 of the last 16 winners had NOT run inside the last 30 days
12 of the last 13 winners were single-figure priced
14 of the last 16 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
25 of the last 29 winners won last time out
12 of the last 14 winners held an OR of at least 147
9 of the last 12 winners held an OR of at least 150
23 of the last 31 winners ran in the last 45 days
Only Kopek Des Bordes is a winner in headgear since 1992
Last 7 winners were Irish or Nicky Henderson trained and 12 of the last 13
Will have finished Top 2 on seasonal debut or Fell
Backing the 3^rd favourite blind has been profitable this century and the last decade

“Must have recorded an RPR of 142 or higher, aged 5 or 6, has won a Graded Hurdle, holds an OR of at least 147 and won last time out”

Trends Pick – OLD PARK STAR

Arkle Novices Chase

Jango Baie is the only winning second favourite since 2008 (he was joint 2nd favourite)
14 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7
9 of the 10 runners priced 6/4 or shorter this century won
24 of the last 26 winners were single-figure priced
14 of the last 16 winners won last time out
11 of the last 14 winners had recorded a chase RPR in excess of 160
7 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
16 of the last 21 winners had won or placed at Cheltenham previously
Only 1 winner in headgear in this century (Western Warhorse)
No 5yo winner since the weight for age was removed in 2008
Both winners with just 1 prior chase start had run that calendar year
No loser in the Irish Arkle has won since 2002 (Moscow Flyer who fell)

“Aged 6 or 7, single figure priced, won last time out, has a chase RPR of 160+ and preferably has won or at least placed at Cheltenham before. Respect runners sent off 6/4 or shorter”

Trends Pick – ROMEO COOLIO

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

The last 8 winners were Irish trained
10 of the last 11 winners didn’t wear headgear
10 of the last 12 winners carried 11-0 to 11-9
16 of the 21 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Only 3 of the 21 winners were rated 135+ from 85 runners (those 3 came from the last 7)
Only 2 of the winners wore a tongue-tie from 81 runners
No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
Last winning mare was Une Artist in 2012

“Irish Trained with no headgear or tongue-tie. Hasn’t run at Cheltenham before and preferably has just one win over hurdles, carries 11-0 to 11-9 and not rated higher than 134”

Trends Pick – TBC

Ultima Handicap Chase

21 of the last 25 winners were sent off at 11/1 or shorter
14 of the last 17 winners were in their first or second season chasing
19 of the last 25 winners were rated 143 or less
8 of last 11 winners sported Cheekpieces, Blinkers or a Tongue-Tie
13 of the last 17 winners had raced at a previous Festival
16 of the last 25 winners were rated 140+
Likely to be aged between 7 and 9 years old
No more than 5 wins over fences but ideally between 1 and 3 chase wins
Irish have only won twice since 1967 and are 0 from 51 since 2006

“British trained with an SP of no bigger than 11/1, is a 1^st or 2^nd season chaser, preferably has 1 to 3 chase wins but no more than 5 and is aged between 7 and 9”

Trends Pick – TBC

Champion Hurdle

ALL of the last 15 winners came from the Top 5 in the betting
ALL of the last 11 winners won last time out
14 of the last 15 winners came from the Top 4 in the betting
20 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-8 years old
16 of the last 18 winners had recorded an RPR of 160 or higher (inc mares allowance)
18 of the last 22 winners had already won a Grade 1
36 of the last 42 won last time out
11 of the last 15 were unbeaten that season
10 of the last 15 winners were the favourite
Ireland and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 27 between them
Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 17
Avoid horses who failed to finish top 3 last time out
Preferably has already won at Cheltenham or placed at The Festival
The last 10 renewals have been split 5/5 between mares and geldings
No winner from the International since 2002

“Won last time out, Top 4 in the betting, has recorded an RPR of 160 or more, is aged 6 to 8 years old, has already won a Grade 1 and at least placed at the Festival before”

Trends Pick – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD

Plate Handicap Chase

ALL the last 11 winners held an OR of 139-149
ALL the last 10 winners had won that season
ALL the last 7 winners had won at Cheltenham
19 of the last 22 winners had 1-3 wins over fences in their career
6 of the last 7 winners won last time out
Only 1 winner since 2003 to wear headgear
Only 1 winner since 1986 carried more than 11-05

“Has an OR of 139-149, has won this season, has already won at Cheltenham, has 1-3 career chase wins, no headgear, preferably won last time out and carries no more than 11-05”

Trends Pick – TBC

NH Chase

New race conditions mean there are no viable trends for this contest

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