With the favourites in the 2024 Cheltenham Festival novice hurdles analysed in our previous column, Joe Napier now looks to the novice chase division. With some hotpots fancied to land the punters the spoils, will such success be borne out in two weeks’ time?
Arkle – Marine Nationale
In an unusual twist of fate, Marine Nationale arrives at this year’s Cheltenham Festival in a similar position to that of Facile Vega before last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Barry Connell’s charge won that race, of course, but now finds himself having prepped for the Arkle with an inexplicable first career defeat.
It was hardly just a defeat either. He finished fifth of six, two places behind Facile Vega, and also behind Il Etait Temps, Found A Fifty and Sharjah, all of whom could reoppose here. The racing public are all aware that that was not his true running, but at cramped odds, is it worth chancing that he can step forward so markedly again at Cheltenham? Perhaps not with a number of worthy challengers in this year’s renewal.
Verdict – LAY
National Hunt Chase – Embassy Gardens
It is a close run thing at the head of the market between Embassy Gardens and Corbetts Cross, although the latter is available at more generous prices in the majority of places. The former, trained by Willie Mullins, is two from two over fences, compared to Emmet Mullins’ charge with just a 25% strike rate.
That alone far from tells the whole story, but Embassy Gardens looks to have matured significantly at the very least over the past year. He was pulled up at last year’s Festival, but has won his two chase starts by a combined 23 lengths without being hard pressed. Now that he settles better, he may well have too much for this field as his trainer seeks a hat-trick in the race.
Corbetts Cross should also be suited by the stamina test, but this season has not been plain sailing for him. Salvador Ziggy therefore rates a similar danger having been put away for the race in similar fashion to how Galvin was three years ago.
Verdict – PLAY
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Fact To File
Sometimes Willie Mullins can be obtuse about his horses’ targets, but he has already confirmed that Fact To File is heading to the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over 3m. However, it would not have mattered which race was his target between this and the Turners Novices’ Chase, as he is opposable at odds of Evs or less, as he currently trades at for the Cheltenham Festival day two contest.
There is no doubt he has won easily on his last two starts, but the most recent came in a match against stablemate Gaelic Warrior, who patently failed to run to form. It is very difficult to rely on such a race as genuine form, so while he won impressively on his second start, how much we learned that day is up for debate as well. The likes of Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning have been given a far more competitive grounding, as has Monty’s Star, with Henry De Bromhead’s yard hitting form at the right time.
Verdict – LAY
Turners Novices’ Chase – Ginny’s Destiny
With Fact To File engaged in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, the mantle of favourite has been passed to Ginny’s Destiny for Paul Nicholls, who won this race with a similar type in Stage Star a year ago. His eight-year-old made a slow start after joining from Tom Lacey in October on the Old Course, but has been exemplary since then, winning three handicaps in a row at Cheltenham to go up 22lb in the ratings.
That said, when winning in December, he was receiving 3lb from Grey Dawning, who may also run here, and only beat that horse by ¾-of-a-length despite Dan Skelton’s grey ploughing through the penultimate fence. Prospective dangers abound here too, with the possibility of a revitalised Mullins pair of Gaelic Warrior and Facile Vega as well as last season’s Martin Pipe hero Iroko. He is another to oppose.
Verdict – LAY
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