The pinnacle of jump racing is nearly upon us. Five prizes in particular at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival are coveted above all others, and punters will no doubt be attracted by the chances of the favourites. But within those races, which favourites should be backed and which should be avoided?
Joe Napier runs through the key market leaders and advises you which favourites to PLAY, and which ones to LAY.
Champion Hurdle – Constitution Hill
News broke yesterday that Constitution Hill’s participation in the 2024 Champion Hurdle is in doubt after a poor workout, coupled with a dirty scope afterwards, suggested all is not well. It has come to light that he has a minor lung infection, beginning the Festival’s annual race against time for one of its star attractions.
On the Betfair Exchange, State Man is now favourite for the race given there are no Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) terms there. However, with all other bookmakers it remains Constitution Hull at the top. Should he make it, the top price 4/6 with NRNB terms could be made to look enormous given his quality, and with no risk of loss if he is declared absent, it’s worth backing. He is simply the best horse in the race, regardless of the form State Man has shown in Ireland this season.
Verdict – PLAY
Champion Chase – El Fabiolo
The performances of Edwardstone and Ferny Hollow in recent weeks have at least made the Queen Mother Champion Chase market less of a two-horse affair. Nevertheless, the main players remain El Fabiolo and Jonbon, with Willie Mullins’ charge worth siding with as he seeks to maintain his unbeaten record over fences.
His jumping can be awkward and functional rather than slick or economic, but he has breezed past all of his opponents on home turf this season. He also had nearly six lengths to spare with Nicky Henderson’s brother of Douvan when they met in the Arkle last year. Most seem to think he will eventually be caught out by his jumping, but both Jonbon and Edwardstone are as prone to lapses of concentration in that department and Ferny Hollow has some serious lost time to make up. The most straightforward answer in this race looks to be the correct one.
Verdict: PLAY
Ryanair Chase – Banbridge
Banbridge has only been seen once this season, but he made a fine impression when spotted, defeating Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton. With that horse claiming Grade 1 honours in impressive style since, the collateral form is working out well.
However, the ground will be of significant interest as the Festival approaches. While connections will likely be inclined to take their chance, anything softer than good dampens this eight-year-old’s speed. Similarly, there is a dearth of evidence that his form is necessarily stronger than Envoi Allen, Stage Star or Conflated, the next three in the market whose intentions are to run here.
A decent surface could ensure he produces the necessary career-best he requires even in the absence of the likes of Allaho. However, there are plenty of viable alternatives in what could end up being a sizeable enough field.
Verdict – LAY
Stayers’ Hurdle – Teahupoo
Impaire Et Passe has not proven his novice hurdle potential, so Teahupoo’s Hatton Grace success, in which he defended his title by beating a previously unbeaten horse for the second year in a row, does not look quite as grand from a form perspective now. However, it was still a superb effort, and he arrives at Cheltenham fresher this year, which could make all the difference.
Soft ground will only increase his chances, but there are a high quantity of dark horses in Thursday’s showpiece. Stablemate Irish Point will be the nominal number two if running here rather than the Champion Hurdle, but impressed significantly when winning over 3m earlier this season. Crambo is another who has stepped up to the plate, while former big-race heroes abound further down the betting: all of Flooring Porter, Monkfish, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park and Sir Gerhard could run here.
That is all before you even get to last year’s one-two in Sire Du Berlais and Dashel Drasher. In an open race, you may well be better finding your value elsewhere.
Verdict – LAY
Cheltenham Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs
He did it the hard way last year and the strength of the opposition in the 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup field may ensure Galopin Des Champs cannot get away with that again. However, after defeats on his two starts proceeding the Gold Cup, he has returned to his magnificent self, sparkling twice at Leopardstown in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup.
Previous foe Fastorslow, who had beaten him twice at Punchestown and has been second at the Festival for the last two years, may well be booked for second again. He was runner-up to the favourite in the Irish Gold Cup, but remains the likeliest threat, though all of L’Homme Presse, Shishkin and Gerri Colombe could join the battle. However, that battle is likely only for the podium if the real Galopin Des Champs shows up.
Verdict – PLAY
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