The latest in our Cheltenham Festival previews series sees Daryl Carter analysing the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. Read his thoughts on a tricky event alongside SkyBet‘s new customer offer of Bet £5 Get £20 In Free Bets
This is tricky even at this stage with the unknowns about which way connections will go with some of these horses. Still, let’s try and have an opinion going forward.
- Ten of the last 12 winners aged six or seven.
- Only two winning favourites in the last 12 years.
- Six of the last 12 won on their final start before this race
- Ten of the last 12 had at least one win over 23-25 furlongs.
- Ten of the last 12 winners rated 140 or higher
- Seven of the last 12 had won at least a Grade 3
- 11 of 12 had at least three runs that same season.
The 146-rated GINTO heads the market here, but connections have suggested the Ballymore as the more probable route. He has done nothing wrong and is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles. He has faced defeat just once in his career, which came in a NHF race, ironically the only time he has been right-handed under rules (did run in a right-handed point). He should have no problem with the Cheltenham track, and he looks every inch a staying chaser in the making. The concern would be that he is yet to go beyond 2m4f and the above stat (10/12 had won over 23-25f) is a bit of a concern. He can also jump slightly right, but he is a nice horse and a strong galloper.
MINELLA CROONER ticks plenty of boxes but is yet to achieve the rating above 140. He is rated 139 though, and English tax would put him in that bracket. He looks a strong stayer and chased home MINELLA COCOONER at the Dublin Racing Festival, where a costly mistake at the second last saw him settle for second. The slight concern is that he was well-positioned in that contest, but he has won on his only start over 3m and surely has more to offer over this distance. He is a grand horse that is improving, but he does look limited, and he wasn’t closing on the winner’s hand over fist at Leopardstown. A rightful second favourite but not one to run scared of.
BACK GINTO AND GET £20 IN FREE BETS
HILLCREST represents the British and is a powerful horse that needs to be taken seriously. He already has course experience and recently confirmed his dominance over a moderate bunch at Haydock in the Albert Bartlett trial on heavy ground. He is very powerful, and although he is every inch a chaser for the future, he could be a significant player in this race. He will likely be ridden prominently, and it’s hard to see him not galloping right up the Cheltenham hill as he did back in January. He could set the standard at the moment, with his recent RPR of 151 being the highest recorded in the field. Massive player.
HOLLOW GAMES needs to raise his game in terms of mixing it with those at the top of the market. He has already been well-held by Ginto and would have been out-stayed by Minella Crooner if that one did not make a mistake at the second last from off the pace. He is a very useful horse, but he may fall short at the top level over 3m.
BACK HILLCREST AND GET £20 IN FREE BETS
JOURNEY WITH ME will almost certainly head to the Ballymore.
The aforementioned Minella Cocooner scored in good style taking the scalp of Minella Crooner and Hollow Games under a good front running ride. He is improving all the time, and horses that win that race at Leopardstown have an excellent record in the Bartlett. Still, connections have suggested that the Ballymore may be the option.
BARDENSTOWN LAD has a rating of 140, but on the balance of his form would have a little to find at this level. Still, he is improving and will like spring ground, and he has won around Cheltenham this term already. He may only have place claims at best though.
BACK BARDENSTOWN LAD AND GET £20 IN FREE BETS
THE NICE GUY has had just one run over hurdles and is unbeaten in three starts, and while the manner of his victory at Naas was quite taking, he may lack the experience for a race of this nature. His best work at Naas came at the finish after taking a while to get going, but he pulled away from his rivals in good style. That form will need improving on, obviously, but he is open to further improvement going up in trip, and he could be a lively outsider.
SHANTREUSSE won the same race Minella Indo finished second in the Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle three years ago, and it’s a race connection’s like to prep their Albert Bartlett contenders in. He won well on heavy ground, and that has been a feature throughout his short career. He is a big horse that may be best suited by a deeper surface as he lacks pace on good ground, evident by the defeat at Punchestown by the ill-fated Mr Fred Rogers. He has a realistic chance of being involved at the finish, but he may be best on deep winter ground once over fences.
BACK THE NICE GUY AND GET £20 IN FREE BETS
CLASSIC GETAWAY, an expensive point to point purchase, has been a slow burner this term, but his runs have not been devoid of promise. He is very green, though and has been crying out for a step up to 3m. He has both of the staying hurdles as potential options, and I would be keen to see if the hood comes off for Cheltenham. He is not one to give up on by any means.
The Verdict
It’s very tough to choose between the Irish outside of Ginto, who will likely head to the Ballymore and Minella Cocooner, who may also head that way. That may just mean that there is no standout candidate from them this year. It’s always difficult to rule out the Irish challengers, but it’s not out of the question that HILLCREST could take some beating. He is a big powerful horse that has done little wrong in his career to date, is unexposed and highly likely to improve again for his second start over 3m, fits all the stats and trends above, after landing a grade 2 last time out and has recorded the highest RPR in the field. He gets my vote at this stage.
BACK HILLCREST AND GET £20 IN FREE BETS
Join Sky Bet And Get £20 In Free Bets
NEW CUSTOMERS ONLY. FIRST SINGLE & E/W BET ONLY. ODDS OF 1/1 OR GREATER. 2 X £10 BET TOKENS. FREE BET STAKES NOT INCLUDED IN RETURNS. FREE BETS EXCLUDE VIRTUALS. FREE BETS ARE NON WITHDRAWABLE. NO FREE BET EXPIRY. ELIGIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FURTHER T&CS APPLY. 18+. GambleAware.ORG