The 2022 Arkle is shaping up to be a competitive contest but likely lies in the hands of the Irish, who have won six of the last ten runnings and hold a strong hand, with Willie Mullins holding sway with a good handful. Find out what Daryl Carter makes of the race at this stage alongside an excellent offer from William Hill, who are offering Bet £10 – Get 30 In Free Bets to new customers.
First off some statistics:
In the last 12 years, 11 winners were aged between six or seven – not a good stat for third favourite and English hope Edwardstone.
Favourites have a good record, with seven of the last 12 obliging, and nine of the last 12 have been in the top three of the betting.
Course form looks key: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, and seven of the last 12 had won at Cheltenham prior.
Ratings: ten of the last 12 were rated 151 or higher.
Now for the likely combatants:
BLUE LORD 9/4 is a likely runner, and he will now lead the line with the absence of long term ante-post favourite and stablemate Ferny Hollow. However, the overall look to his form wouldn’t be strong enough for this contest in normal years, and even with the absence of his stablemate you still wouldn’t have the utmost confidence in backing him. He jumps well and has improved on his hurdle form from last term when he was well held by at least 10 widening lengths in the Supreme. He is not the usual superstar we come to expect in this contest but he has recorded an RPR of 160, so he is a rightful runner here and he is still improving, but he is yet to be fully tested.
EDWARDSTONE 3/1 is the best of the British after landing the Wayward Lad at Kempton at Christmas to follow his electric Grade 1 Sandown win. He is now three for four over fences this term but is technically a second-season chaser, so he did have an experience edge on his rivals. He was rated 150 over hurdles at his best, and although he has improved nine pounds for this sphere, he needs to pull out more. He is bang there on RPR ratings with a recorded 164, so he is not easily passed over, but it’s hard to see him go on and be competitive in a Champion Chase or a Ryanair next term, and he may lack the improvement of one or two others and his form is not as strong as it looks.
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Mullins holds a strong hand down the field with entrants such as five-year-olds HAUT EN COULEURS 8/1 and SAINT SAM 10/1 and eight-year-old JUNGLE BOOGIE 25/1, but they may have other targets such as the Turners or the Browns Advisory.
Haut En Couleurs impressed on debut at Leopardstown and for one with such little experience (just three hurdle runs) he is open to plenty of improvement. He will need to improve to play a hand here though, he puts in an extra stride at each of his fences which in turn causes him to loose small amounts of ground at each obstacle. At Leopardstown is was only the final fence which he met on a good stride and the runner-up was worth an upgrade in that contest. No five-year-old since 2006 has won this contest but only five have tried in the last ten years and one of those was an 80/1 chance, so it’s not a hard and fast rule with a small sample size. Still, he needs more at the Dublin Racing Festival.
RIVIERE D’ETEL 6/1 could line up here and she arguably has the best form on offer but she jumps out to the right and that would be a big cause for concern. The Mares Chase could be a possible target or the Grand Annual should they opt for a handicap mark off of the English assessor.
THIRD TIME LUCKI 6/1‘s run at Sandown can be easily forgiven after going off too hard and hitting a fair few fences on the way around. That track simply didn’t suit him and the return to Cheltenham will. He is a horse best when fresh but he needs to learn to settle although the presence of a front runner such as FOR PLEASURE 40/1 would do him the world of good. He jumps very well gaining plenty of ground at his fences, but the fact that he ran at Doncaster on the 29th leaves him with just a 48 day break.
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Verdict
Ferny Hollow ticked all the boxes, but it looks as though he stablemate Blue Lord will pick up the prize on his absence. It’s hard to have a confident view in this race at the moment and this will be a betting race on the day. I am leaning towards HAUT EN COULEURS and BLUE LORD at this moment in time but I need to see more from the pair at the Dublin Racing Festival.
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