The Ballymore Novices Hurdle has been won in recent years by some top prospects, including last season when Henry De Bromhead’s Bob Olinger strode to an impressive victory and recorded another notable win for Ireland in the contest. Daryl Carter has previewed this competitive novice event alongside an exclusive Virgin Bet offer that provides new customers with £20 in free bets.
This term, the Ballymore Novice Hurdle is a wide-open event, and I can’t remember a year when the market was so indecisive about the favourite, let alone the winner.
Key trends
Seven-year-olds have a poor record. French Holly in 1998 is the only horse to win the race as a seven-year-old. 12/12 were aged five or six.
Eight of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Only 2/12 had a previous run at Cheltenham.
Eleven of the last 12 were rated 146 or higher.
Ten of the last 12 had at least three hurdle starts.
The Likely Contenders
DYSART DYNAMO
After an excellent performance at Punchestown, Dysart Dynamo heads the market at 4/1 but looks highly likely to head to the Supreme Novice Hurdle. There has never been any indication that this route would be the prefered option. He takes up a good proportion of the market, but it would be a major surprise to see him run here – sorry ante-post backers.
SIR GERHARD
Sir Gerhard could be a possible switch to this race, but he is a seven-year-old, which doesn’t bode well. Age is more of a concern than most will let on to, and it’s because their younger rivals tend to improve throughout the season and bypass the older horses. Sir Gerhard won with a good bit in hand at the Dublin Racing Festival, but his jumping leaves something to be desired. He is clearly a talented horse but is he just very good rather than great?
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JOURNEY WITH ME
Journey With Me remains unbeaten after scoring in three career starts – a point to point a bumper and then saw his Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle form boosted when the runner-up filled the same position at the Dublin Racing Festival. He is unexposed but also very inexperienced and will need to be outstanding to win this contest on the back of just one hurdle start (at the time of writing).
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GINTO
Ginto has the option of the Albert Bartlett, which looks the more likely Cheltenham target, but he would be a big player should connections decide to opt for this route. He is unbeaten in his last four starts, and he looks well above average and has recorded one of the highest RPR’s in the field of 147. He sets the Irish standard and given their excellent record in this race he is one to keep a close eye on.
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MINELLA CROONER
Minella Cocooner scored at the Dublin Racing Festival to enhance his claims for this intended target. His run style will suit the Ballymore Novice Hurdle, and the Dublin Racing Festival form is not to be underestimated. He’s firmly on the upgrade, although Willie Mullins’ runners coming from this race to Cheltenham in the Ballymore don’t have the best record. It would be a surprise if he were not in the frame, though.
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STAGE STAR
Stage Star has done little wrong and won the Challow Hurdle at Newbury when last seen despite showing signs of greenness in the closing stages (hung left). He is hard to get a handle on, given the level of opposition that has been behind him this term, not really up to much. He shouldn’t be blamed for that, though, and he is a very smart horse in his own right. This may be a step too far.
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WALKING ON AIR
Walking On Air was extremely impressive on hurdle debut at Newbury, and it was a performance I was really taken with. He lacks the experience for a race like this, but on the back of that performance, he doesn’t have a whole lot to find. We should see him again soon, perhaps at Huntingdon, where Nicky Henderson likes to prep his horses for the festival, and he has a very promising future.
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STATE MAN
State Man is a horse I really, really like, but I suspect he will be on course for a handicap, and wherever he goes, he ought to be followed. I will leave this short and sweet, given he is unlikely to go here – maybe.
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Verdict
There is so much uncertainty about who goes where with this race and the Albert Bartlett it’s hard to be confident on any ante-post selection. The two I am very keen on are State Man and Walking On Air, the latter the most likely to turn up.
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