The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is the sixth race on Cheltenham’s Day One card. Find out Andrew Mount‘s thoughts on the race at this stage along with an exclusive 888sport sign-up offer of Bet £10 – Get £40 In Free Bets
INTRODUCTION
This race has been held since 2005 and in that time, thanks to a host of outsiders winning, we could have bet every horse in the race at SP and made a profit of £59.50, improving to £212.64 at Betfair SP. Of course, I’m not suggesting we take that approach but it does emphasise how difficult it is to find the winner on the day of the race, let alone at the antepost stage. However, there are some they interesting patterns emerging which can help us to narrow the field…
KEY STATS AND TRENDS
Winners need to have something up their sleeve from the handicapper and this is one of the few Cheltenham festival races where recent form is perhaps not quite so important. When I previewed this race for GG last year, I highlighted the poor record of those who finished in the top three in their prep race and the stats held up again. In the past 11 years they have a have a three from 164 record (1.8% strike-rate) for a loss of £125.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. In the same period, runners who finished fourth or worse were seven from 71 (9.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £189.00 at SP (+£333.18 at Betfair SP). This angle threw up last year’s 80-1 winner Jeff Kidder (Betfair SP 120.32) from just five qualifiers. Those who did win last time out tended to do so in a low-grade contest (Class 4 or lower) and perhaps weren’t hammered by the handicapper as a result.
RUNNING STYLE
14 of the 17 winners were ridden patiently, two were ridden prominently (from a sample of more than 100 runners) and only one made the running. Simply backing all runners who were described as ‘held up’ in their latest start would have found eight winners from 120 bets (6.7%) for a profit of £45.00 at SP. Throw in the proviso that they must have raced in the past five weeks and that improves to eight from 66 (12%) for a profit of £99.00.
GRADED FORM
Five winners finished unplaced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest last time out and backing all 40 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £152.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
LIKELY CONTENDERS
GAELIC WARRIOR 9/2 heads the antepost lists, though taking such a price without a guaranteed run in a race frequently won by outsiders doesn’t strike me as the wisest investment. He’s yet to run for Willie Mullins but the son of Maxios will carry the Ricci silks and showed a good level of form in France.
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle – due to be run at Leopardstown on Saturday (February 5) – could have a strong bearing on this race, with several of the also-rans likely to contest the Fred Winter rather than the Triumph Hurdle. SCENIC LOOK 20/1 will be a big price for that Grade 1 contest but has already run respectably in Grade 2 company, finishing a 100/1 fifth (beaten by just over 13 lengths) in the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. Sixth-placed Calvados won next time and she could develop into a Fred Winter contender with another respectable effort there.
BACK SCENIC LOOK AND GET £40 IN FREE BETS
The Jane Williams-trained MOKA DE VASSY 20/1 arrived late to finish second at 50-1 in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham on Trials Day, finding only Pied Piper too good. Similar tactics are usually ideal in the Fred Winter and he can go well.
IROKO 20/1 caught the eye on his British debut when a 33-1 fourth in the Grade 1 Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, staying on well from off the pace to finish 17 lengths behind the winner.
Six of Dan Skelton’s nine previous runners in the Fred Winter finished in the top six and ROCKY MAN ran with credit in a Grade 2 contest here at the November meeting, finishing just over four lengths behind the winner in sixth place. Grade 1 company was too tough for him at Chepstow next time but he’d need to come out and win before the festival were he to get in the race, as he’s currently rated just 117.
BACK IROKO AND GET £40 IN FREE BETS
FRED WINTER VERDICT
This is hard to enough to solve on the day, let alone at the antepost stage before the entries and weights are known but MOKA DE VASSY, whose price varies from 9-1 to 20-1, has the patient running style that is so effective and gets a tentative vote. Scenic Look is also respected but the picture will become much clearer in a few weeks time
BACK MOKA DE VASSY AND GET £40 IN FREE BETS