It’s exactly three weeks until the big race of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. Our top tipster Andrew Mount has covered all the key stats, trends and potential runners in his Gold Cup preview alongside Betfair’s exclusive Grow Your Roar offer, where new and existing customers can build up to £30 in Free Bets for the Cheltenham Festival.
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Key Stats & Trends
Age
- The last ten winners were aged seven, eight or nine. Those aged ten+ were 0-22, though the expected number of winners was only 1.14.
Days Since Last Run
- Those who had raced within the past four weeks were 0-25. Nine of the ten winners had been rested for between 33 and 79 days, the other for 104 days.
SP Rank Last Time Out
- Seven of the last ten winners had started as favourite on their latest start and backing all 42 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £6.33.
Recent Form
- Eight of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race. The exceptions were Minella Indo (fourth) and Lord Windermere (sixth) – both can be regarded as spring horses who weren’t at their best on unsuitably soft ground when prepping in February. Horses who finished second or third on their latest outing are 0-38 in the past ten renewals. Since War Of Attrition’s win in 2006 the score is 0-59 (expected wins = 2.76).
Prep Race
- Those who prepped at Cheltenham are just 1-58 this century, with the last winner coming in the year 2000 (Looks Like Trouble). Four of the last ten winners prepped at Leopardstown, three at Newbury, two at Tramore and one at Thurles.
A PLUS TARD 3/1
Last year’s runner-up slaughtered his rivals in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his return to action before finding Galvin a short head too good in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. His record left-handed now reads 1121321212 (5-10). He looks sure to run his race again and will be hard to kick out of the frame.
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GALVIN 4/1
Gordon Elliott’s eight-year-old won the 3m6f National Hunt Challenge Cup at last season’s festival and was second of 20 to Imperial Aura in the novices’ handicap at this meeting in 2020. He broke his Grade 1 duck when narrowly denying A Plus Tard in the Savils Chase, taking his record over 3m or further to 11121 (4-5), with the defeat by three-quarters of a length to Frodon in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal.
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MINELLA INDO 4/1
Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old would be unbeaten in three runs at the festival but for Champ coming out of the clouds to collar him late on after he touched 1.06 in-running in the 2020 RSA Chase. He won this race by a length and a quarter from A Plus Tard 12 months ago and, though winless in three subsequent outings, is sure to be spot on for this.
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PROTEKTORAT 8/1
Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old is improving rapidly and he returned from a second wind operation to land the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase from The Shunter at Aintree last spring. He was only just touched off by Midnight Shadow when reappearing under a big weight in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and went one better in Grade 2 company over 3m1f at Aintree next time, slamming Native River by 25 lengths. Only three finished and the runner-up was retired after pulling up in the Welsh National next time but he still looks clear best of the home team.
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CONFLATED 10/1
Last season, I’d got it into my head that Conflated needed a big field/strong pace scenario, as his first three wins had come in fields of 25, 13 and 12 runners. However, a switch to forcing tactics has worked wonders and it looks as though he simply needs a left-handed track. His chase record right-handed stands at 3242 (0-4) but he has figures of 131U11 (4-6) when going the other way round, with the latest win at 18-1 in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. He looks a strong contender.
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TORNADO FLYER 12/1
Caused a 28-1 upset when slamming Clan Des Obeaux by nine lengths in the King George and has found trips of 2m4f/2m5f too sharp at the last two festivals, keeping on into a nine-length fifth behind Samcro in the 2020 Marsh and finishing just over 12 lengths behind Allaho when 25-1 for last year’s Ryanair Chase. He missed the festival in 2019 but was third to Relegate in the 2018 Champion Bumper and he holds solid each-way claims.
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ROYALE PAGAILLE 20/1
He blundered his way round into a 49-length sixth of 12 when 14-1 for this race last year and, even if he gets his favoured soft/heavy surface, there has to be a doubt about his effectiveness on an undulating track.
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ASTERION FORLONGE 25/1
Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old has fallen or unseated in four of his nine chase outings since beating Conflated into second place on his first attempt over fences. His stamina remains in question but he could plug on into a place if staying on his feet.
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GOLD CUP VERDICT
Last year’s winner Minella Indo, who has Cheltenham festival form figures of 121 (2-3), is winless so far this term but will no doubt be at his peak once more. A Plus Tard is another solid Placepot inclusion but Galvin might be able to confirm Savils Chase form with last year’s runner-up. King Gorge winner Tornado Flyer is also respected on the strength of his previous Cheltenham festival efforts over shorter trips but the vote goes to CONFLATED, who can prove that his Irish Gold Cup win was no fluke.
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