The County Hurdle is the second race run on the final day of the Cheltenham Festival. The 2m1f contest was won last season by Belfast Banter, who went on to claim Grade 1 honours at Aintree the following month. Andrew Mount has previewed this event alongside an exclusive SBK offer that provides money back in cash up to £40.
COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE (Cheltenham 2:10pm, Friday, March 18)
Key Stats & Trends
Trainers
Dan Skelton (three) and Willie Mullins (four) have landed seven of the last ten renewals between them from ten and 36 runners respectively. Skelton (+£46.00 at SP, +460%) is well head of his rival (+£28.50, +79.2%) in terms of profitability on turnover. This system blanked in 2013 but found the 11-1 runner-up from three selections and also steered us towards the 7-1 second and 25-1 fourth in 2014. Last year was the worst year so far, with sixth place the best the six qualifiers could muster. There is also a school of thought (thanks to my friend George for this!) that Skelton was the mastermind behind Paul Nicholls’ previous good record in this race, as he was assistant trainer when Nicholls enjoyed success in 2004, 2006 and 2009 and had only just left to set up on his own when Lac Fontana won in 2014. Nicholls is 0-10 since then.
Recent form
Last time out winners are just two from 44 in the past ten years for a loss of £25.50. Those who finished second or third in their prep race are six from 78 (+£44.00).
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
Breeding
French breds are 0-31 in the past ten years.
Prep Race
All ten winners ran over hurdles last time. Those who ran in a Class 1 handicap hurdle were just two from 108 for a loss of £73.00. Those who ran in a Class 2 handicap were three from 31 (+£15.00) but those who ran in Class 3 or lower handicaps were 0-24.
Running Style
Nine of the last ten winners were ridden patiently. One (from a sample of 65 runners) raced prominently and no front-runners were successful.
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
The Main Contenders
ECHOES IN RAIN
The Willie Mullins-trained mare finished a respectable 25-1 third of five behind Honeysuckle at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) but small-field tactical affairs aren’t ideal for this hooded and often-keen sort. She hasn’t had many opportunities in big fields and she could go well if tackling this race in preference to the Champion Hurdle.
WEST CORK
Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old landed the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on the Old Course here in November, form that has been well advertised by the likes of Tritonic, Glory And Fortune – winner of the Betfair Hurdle – and Marie’s Rock, who finished fifth, sixth and seventh respectively. The horses in 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th have all won at least once since and he’s only once finished outside of the first two places, reportedly suffering an overreach when fifth to Tritonic at Ascot last time.
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
SLIP OF THE TONGUE
The Padraig Roche-trained five-year-old won at Tramore on his debut last spring before a solid reappearance second to the now 146-rated Saint Felicien. He was far from disgraced in Grade 2 company when third to Teahupoo and Quilixios at Limerick in December and, given the way he jumped/hung to his left when landing a Listed Punchestown contest on his latest outing, there could be plenty more to come when he races left-handed for the first time.
EL FABIOLO
The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old has option in the Supreme and Ballymore but would have to be respected if taking the handicap route instead.
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
UNEXPECTED PARTY
Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old was a big eyecatcher at Wetherby in late October, winning easily despite racing in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. I was confident that he’d follow up at Cheltenham but, having raced prominently at Wetherby, Bridget Andrews switched him off in rear in a steadily-run contest and challenged on the far side where the ground was slowest. He was just over two lengths down at the line and also found one too good back at Wetherby next time when perhaps hitting the front too soon. He was hugely impressive at Ascot on his latest outing, landing quite a punt over the 2m3.5f trip and his subsequent 12lb rise to 142 still gives him some wiggle room with the handicapper. Dan Skelton says the Coral Cup is the number one target but he has often mentioned how he’d like to run Unexpected Party over two miles again and, given his love affair with the County Hurdle, don’t be surprised to see him rock up in this race instead. He’d have a massive shout if running here.
SAINT ROI
Last year’s impressive winner has mostly acquitted himself with credit in Graded company this term, with November’s neck second to Abacadabras at Punchestown the highlight. Small field/tactical affairs aren’t ideal and he’s two from two in double-figure line-ups since his Irish debut. He could go for the Champion Hurdle this year but will make the shortlist of lining up here instead.
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
TRITONIC
Alan King has gone 0-70 in hurdle races at the Cheltenham festival since Medinas caused a 33-1 upset in the 2013 Coral Cup and he’s only one from 130 since 2009 (expected winners = 6.40). Tritonic disappointed in the Betfair Hurdle but raced closer to the early pace than ideal and will appreciate the stiffer track at Cheltenham. Good ground suits.
I LIKE TO MOVE IT
The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained five-year-old fared best of those to chase the early pace when a short-head second in the Betfair Hurdle, a race in which the winner, third, fourth and fifth came from midfield or further back. However, his prominent running style is unlikely to be helpful in this race.
HERBIERS
Oliver Greenall’s five-year-old needs a couple of runs at the start of each campaign but, since leaving France, his record on his third or subsequent start reads 13111 (4-5). He was well backed ahead of his Doncaster success last time and is three from three in fields of 14+ over hurdles. Aintree might suit better but I’ll be backing him if he runs here.
Join SBK here and receive money back in cash up to £40 on initial loses
COUNTY HURDLE VERDICT
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the handicaps are very hard to call at the ante-post stage until we know the entries and weights. However, playing the Dan Skelton/Willie Mullins angle is a powerful one and I’m especially interested in Skelton’s UNEXPECTED PARTY if he tackles this race in preference to the Coral Cup. Stablemate West Cork is high on the shortlist, along with Echoes In Rain, Herbiers and Slip Of The Tongue.
BACK UNEXPECTED PARTY HERE AND GET MONEY BACK IN CASH UP TO £40
GET MONEY BACK IN CASH UP TO £40 ON YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT WITH SBK .
New customers only. First deposit of at least £10/€10 in a single amount to be eligible for the rebate. Refund on losses will be refunded in cash equalling the amount of your first deposit (max refund £40). Payment restrictions & T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org