The Kim Muir Handicap Chase concludes day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival. The 3m2f contest was won last season by Mount Ida, who famously touched the maximum 999/1 in running. Andrew Mount has previewed this event alongside an exclusive Paddy Power new customer offer that provides £45 in free bets when you bet £10.
FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP AMATEUR JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP CHASE (Cheltenham 5.30, Thursday, March 17)
Key Stats & Trends
Age
Since 1997, horses aged six or younger have failed to win from 32 runners and those age 11+ were just one from 73.
Days Since Last Run
Race fitness has been important, with those who last raced between 1 and 28 days ago scoring 14 times from 199 qualifiers since 1997 for a profit of £16.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners was only 8.46).
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Chase Experience
This race could usually be relied upon to go to an experienced honest plodder with plenty of placed efforts in its form and very few, if any, non-completions. It also used to be a graveyard for Irish-trained runners but that’s not been the case in recent years. Mount Ida was successful for Denise Foster on just her fourth chase outing and Milan Native scored for Gordon Elliott in 2020 on his sixth run over fences. That said, if you take the placed horses into account in addition to the winners, those with at last nine chase runs to their name are favoured.
Official Ratings
The last ten winners were rated in a narrow band between 137 and 143. Backing all 115 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £9.00.
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Trainers
Nigel Twiston-Davies has sent out 12 runners in the past ten years, including a 16-1 winner and two 40-1 places. Gordon Elliott’s record reads 3221U30801 (2-10), or 3221U308011 (3-11) if you include 2021 when his horses were running in Denise Foster’s name.
System1
Combining age (7-10yos) and a recent run (1-28 days) as a system has found 14 winners from 161 runners since 1997 for a profit of £54.50. The qualifiers who had had at least nine previous runs over fences were eight from 79 in the study period for a profit of £82.00. This system drew a blank last year, but the four qualifiers included the 33-1 runner-up Cloudy Glen and 9-1 fourth Hold The Note, In 2020, the sole qualifier pulled up (66-1) but the three qualifiers in 2019 included the 6-1 winner and 40-1 fourth.
System 2
Combining those aged seven to ten, with a recent run (1-28 days) and an official rating of 137-143 would have found six winners from 26 bets in the past ten years for a profit of £62.00.
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The Main Contenders
FRONTAL ASSAULT
Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old has had three runs over fences and, though yet to win, recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) when half-a-length second to Floueur at Fairyhouse in a 2m5.5f handicap chase last time. He did well to finish eighth behind Galopin Des Champs in last season’s Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle after getting badly hampered by a loose horse.
GRAND PARADIS
Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old dead-heated for second place with stablemate Frontal Assault when half a length behind Floueur at Fairyhouse and he too has yet to win over the larger obstacles. Horses of his age group don’t have the greatest record in the Kim Muir.
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FLOUEUR
The seven-year-old led home a 1-2-3 for the Gordon Elliott yard at Fairyhouse in January (2m5.5f) and has since finished a solid third to Death Duty over 3m4f on heavy ground at Punchestown. This in-between trip will be ideal and he holds each-way claims. He’s rated 141 at present, though might get a few pounds more from the British handicapper.
DEATH DUTY
Powered through the mud to score comfortably over 3m4f on heavy ground at Punchestown in February where he had Floueur back in third. He looks ground dependent and his record in the spring reads 32U302 (0-6), suggesting we should give him the swerve if he lines up here.
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AIN’T THAT A SHAME
Henry De Bromhead’s eight-year-old chased home Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown over Christmas and has since finished a close second to Champagne Platinum in a Beginners’ chase at Navan. His hurdles win came on heavy ground and he’d be of interest if getting his ground now going handicapping for the first time.
CAT TIGER
The Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old is consistent and a safer jumper, taking his chase record in Britain to 132521 (2-6) when scoring in a desperate finish at Ascot last time. Two of the defeats came over the Grand National fences and he’s likely to be thereabouts.
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SMOKING GUN
The Gordon Elliott-trained nine-year-old has plenty more chase experience than his stablemates who are also prominent in the ante-post betting, winning twice from 16 starts. However, the big field is a concern, as his chase record in fields of 12 or more runners reads 8395PP04FP (0-10), as compared to 173613 (2-6) in anything smaller.
STRICTLYADANCER
Complete a hat-trick on good/good to soft ground in October/November before finding conditions too soft at Sandown and Kempton. He’s two from two on the other course here and would be of interest if getting his ground and given a prep run in late February/early March.
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KIM MUIR VERDICT
With the entries and weights unknown at the time of writing, this race will obviously require another look before the big day. Gordon Elliott has a great recent record and anything he runs will need at least a second look, with FLOUEUR most interesting at this stage. Cat Tiger and Strictlyadancer both have possibilities for the home team.
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