The Mares Novice Hurdle is shaping up to be yet another cracking race at the Cheltenham Festival, and with Willie Mullins having won five of the last six, he looks the go-to trainer yet again this year. Read Daryl Carter‘s views on one of the newest races at the Festival alongside Paddy Power’s exclusive offer where you can get up to 20 back as cash.
The Stats
All six winners were aged either five or six.
Five of the last six winners were in the top three of the betting.
50% of the winners won on their last outing.
Four of the last six were rated 141 or higher.
The Field
ALLEGORIE DE VASSY heads the betting for the infamous Willie Mullins yard, and she has impressed when winning both of her starts in Ireland since arriving from France. Her recent clash with rival BRANDY LOVE suggests that rival may have her measure, but she was very straightforward, jumps well and has the size and scope to improve – especially over fences. She is a really likably mare, has few ground concerns and is highly likely to give her running in this contest without worry. She does saddle a 5lb penalty for her win at Fairyhouse, so she will be up against it but is a worthy favourite.
Brandy Love’s wild jumping out to the left at Fairyhouse when beaten three lengths by Allegorie De Vassy is something backers will not want to be repeated. Still, that effort showed her sizeable engine, and there were plenty of positives to take out of the performance. The switch back to a left-handed track and now five pounds better off with the above mentioned, she has strong claims—a likeable mare who has plenty of speed.
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*DINOBLUE impressed on debut in a good time figure on heavy ground at Clonmel, and the half-sister to Blue Sari looks another useful sort for the Willie Mullins team. She didn’t have a tonne left after the line, but she readily put her rivals to bed with a good turn of foot down the back straight. She is exciting, but her lack of experience could pose a few issues. Still, she is the unknown quantity in the field and not one to write off.
ELLE EST BELLE will likely skip this engagement for Aintree but would have a stiff task against some improving mares.
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PARTY CENTRAL was impressive when winning a handicap at Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival off a handicap mark of 121. She will need a good deal more here but is on the upgrade. She could be seen to best effect over further in time and is passed over.
STATUAIRE failed to give her running behind Sir Gerhard at Leopardstown last time, but her earlier form suggests she is not one to give up on. It’s rare for a mare to win the Grade 1 Royal Bond – even if it’s below-par form – and she could have plenty more to offer on a sounder surface. Interesting.
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GRANGEE, last year’s Champion Bumper sixth, was behind Allegorie De Vassy and Brandy Love and perhaps yet to play her hand when coming down two-out. She is another improving mare in the field, yet her overall form suggests she has a bit to find with those at the top of the market, although it’s not out of the question.
LOVE ENVOI represents the British, and she is now five for five after beating NINA THE TERRIER at Sandown on Saturday, and she is a horse going the right way. Her time figure at Lingfield on a deep surface suggests she is well worth her place in this line-up, and she could be a dark horse in this contest.
Of those at bigger prices, HORS PISTE travelled through her Irish debut performance like a useful type, but she was in desperate need of the run after crossing the line. It would be no surprise, given her connections, should she take a big step forward next time out (Clonmel 17th Feb).
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Verdict
This is a good race, but ready preference at this time is for BRANDY LOVE, who did remarkably well to get so close to Allegorie De Vassy in the Solerina Novice Hurdle, and two of the last six winners have come from that contest. She is 5lb better off with that rival on the day, and 4/1 is more than fair.
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