The 3m6f National Hunt Chase was elevated from Listed to Grade 2 status in 2017 when Tiger Roll was successful at 16-1. Andrew Mount has previewed the increasingly prestigious contest alongside an exclusive 888sport sign-up offer of Bet £10 – Get £45 Sign-up offer.
Key Stats and Trends
The following are all factors to keep an eye on with a view to the National Hunt Chase.
Running Style
Seven of the previous ten winners were described as ‘held up’ and three were prominent throughout. Frontrunners failed to notch a win but five of them ran second or third so don’t let that put you off for Placepot purposes.
Trainers
Paul Nicholls-trained runners are 0-16 this century. Jonjo O’Neill leads the way with five winners from 22 runners (+£64.00) but he’s only had one runner since the race became a Grade 2 contest in 2-17, 150-1 shot Lithic who was pulled up last year. More recently, Gordon Elliott has dominated with form figures of 1P1F1UFF1 (4-9) for a profit of £36.00. Last year’s winner Galvin (7-2) was effectively his as well.
Days Since Last Run
Three of the last five winners had been off the track for more than 90 days. Those returned within four weeks of their latest effort were 0-28.
Recent form
Since 2017 when the race became a Grade 2, last-time-out winners are just one from 23 (Galvin last year). Those who ran second in their prep race were 0-18. Interestingly, five horses fell or unseated in their prep race they produced two winners (12-1 and 9-2) and two seconds (50-1 and 9-2), with the other one falling.
Chase Experience
Since 2017, those who arrived at the Cheltenham Festival with four or fewer chase starts to their name had a 0-46 record (expected wins = 3.46). Those with five or more chase runs under their belts were five from 32 for a profit of £23.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were third or worse in their prep race and who started at 18-1 or shorter at Cheltenham had form figures of 143111 (4-6).
The Main Contenders
STATTLER
The Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old heads the antepost lists at around the 3-1 market and is unbeaten in two starts over fences. He scored gamely at Naas last time and has a touch of class – he was Grade 1 placed over hurdles and fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett. However, lack of sufficient chase experience could just find him out.
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RUN WILD FRED
The eight-year-old represents Gordon Elliott, who has a fantastic record in this race. He was eight lengths back in second place when favourite for the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown just after Christmas on what was his tenth chase outing. He’s more battle-hardened than Statler and would be ahead of that one in my tissue.
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FAROUK D’ALENE
Another Gordon Elliott/Gigginstown representative, who was just over one length behind Statler at Naas last time, the pair pulling 17 clear of Vanillier in third. That was only his third chase outing, and he too may lack the right experience for this marathon contest.
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THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
Paul Nicholls hasn’t got the greatest record in this contest but he saddled the runner-up last year in Next Destination and he has another strong candidate in Threeunderthrufive. He’s won four from four since finding one too good at Chepstow on his chase/debut reappearance and now has form figures, outside of his seasonal debuts, of 1111611111 (9-10). The sole defeat came at last year’s festival when sixth to Vanillier in the Albert Bartlett, doing third best of the British-trained runners. He holds each-way claims.
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CAPODANNO
J P McManus owned the last six-year-old to win this race – Minella Rocco in 2016 – and bids to repeat the feat with Willie Mullins’ Capodanno. He won at Naas on his chase debut despite a few mistakes and found only Bob Ollinger too good in Grade 3 company at Punchestown next time. He unseated at Leopardstown last time, albeit in a Grade 1, and could perhaps do with another run before Cheltenham.
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VANILLIER
Gavin Cromwell’s seven-year-old grey bounced back from a poor effort to bolt up in last season’s Albert Bartlett and, though well behind Statler and Farouk D’Alene at Naas last time, it would be no surprise to see him back to his best over this longer trip. He’s had four runs over fences, winning once.
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ONTHEROPES
The Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old has plenty of experience over fences (nine runs) but has shown a clear preference for racing right-handed. He could run at Punchestown this Sunday (February 13).
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National Hunt Chase Verdict
It’s tempting to side with Threeunderthrufive thanks to his nine from ten record outside of his seasonal debut. However, he was only sixth in the Albert Bartlett and may again have to play second fiddle to a typically strong raiding party from Ireland. Vanillier has hopes of reversing Naas form with Stattler and Farouk D’Alene but preference is for Gordon Elliott’s RUN WILD FRED.
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