This is setting up to be a right cracker this year, and plenty of these have pressing claims according to Daryl Carter. Find out our top tipster’s views on Day 4s opening race at the Cheltenham Festival alongside Betfair’s new customer of Money Back As Cash Up To £20 alongside their exclusive Grow Your Roar campaign.
The Stats
Three of the last 12 were favourites. Seven of the last 12 were in the top three of the betting.
Eight of the last 12 won on their last start before this race. All 12 winners had their last run within 48 days.
Six of the last 12 winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Just two of the last 12 winners had previous course form.
Eight of the last 12 winners were rated 140 or higher.
Seven of the last 12 had a win in a Grade 1-3 race.
The Field
PIED PIPER looked out of the ordinary when scoring at Cheltenham on his second outing and remains unbeaten in both starts over hurdles. He was rated as high as 96 on the flat but showed a preference for heavy ground in that sphere, but his latest win came on good ground at Cheltenham. He won the Triumph Trial, which has produced two winners of the Triumph Hurdle in the last ten years, and he is very hard to knock. He has all the attributes to make up into a potential 150 plus horse in this sphere with a rating of 144 after just two starts, and he holds the right form lines from Ireland too. There’s no doubting the race he won latest was of poor quality, but the manner in which he did it was impressive.
VAUBAN was behind Pied Piper at Punchestown on debut with that rival arguably fitter from a more recent run on the flat, and he duly confirmed the form by winning the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown in good style despite doing plenty wrong. While Pied Piper looks a ready-made horse, Vauban is still very raw, and there’s plenty of improvement to come. He was also a stride behind Pied Piper at Punchestown, and the winner got a good ride from Davy Russell. A mistake at the last likely cost Vauban victory that day. There was a significant improvement from Vauban from his first start to his second, and with a rating of 145, it’s no wonder they are locked together at the top of the market.
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FIL DOR is rated 141 and had led the ante-post markets for some time but was readily held by Vauban at Leopardstown. He always had track position on that rival but was unable to find the pace to fend off the winner. He looks like a horse that will improve for a longer trip in time but should the ground turn up soft/heavy; he would need to be considered. He sets a good standard, but one that has now been surpassed by not only his owner/stablemate Pied Piper but Vauban also.
DOCTOR PARNASSUS leads the charge for the British and has been impressive in winning both his starts over hurdles by ten and nine lengths, but he has failed to record any speed figures that would catch the eye, and his RPR’s of 118 and 124 are a long way off those at the top of the market from Ireland. He is a well built horse, compact, strong and likely has more improvement to come. He is a very nice horse if ignoring the figures and the ratings, but his current handicap mark of 131 should see him head to the Boodles – but that’s unlikely given his connections.
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PORTICELLO continues to improve run on run and recently scored at Haydock when making all of the running in testing conditions. Trainer Gary Moore knows what it takes to win this race, so his runner must be respected. He sets the standard on ratings for the British, but he may be seen to best effect on testing ground, and he may lack the pace to trouble some of the Irish runners. He will give a good account no doubt.
IL ETAIT TEMPS looks a big price on his third on stable/seasonal debut behind Vauban. That was his first outing, and he was thrown into a Grade 1, which suggests connections must think a good deal of him. He didn’t get the best of trips around, having been held up at the rear of the field and on the inside rail. He pulled wide approaching the bend and was notably green but lacked the pace to challenge seriously. He could come on a good deal for that outing, and it would be no surprise to see him mixing it with those at the top of the market. He is a lively outsider in this contest.
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KNIGHT SALUTE took all before him in Britain in the early part of the season, and he has been kept quiet since scoring at Doncaster over Porticello. His form has worked out well, but it could be a further improvement from his rivals rather than his form getting a significant boost. He is rated 135, which looks rather high in all honesty.
ICARE ALLEN fell short of the top-level when well held in the Spring Juvenile and has a big task to reverse that form.
Of those at bigger prices, PETIT TONNERRE was extremely impressive in France in two starts and has switched to Jonjo O’Neil. He could prove to be very useful and has been given a rating of 135, which could mean he will go to the Boodles Handicap – depending on what happens when he runs this week – but is a horse to keep an eye on.
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Verdict
VAUBAN looked out of the ordinary and given his powerful burst of tactical speed in his locker, that could be the undoing of a few of these who look as though they will want further in time. He stayed very strongly at Punchestown on heavy ground but improved for a sounder surface at Leopardstown. He has all the attributes to make up into a very useful prospect and has my vote.
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