The Turners Novices’ Chase is a Grade 1 contest that opens day 3 of the Festival. The 2m4f race was won last season in impressive style by Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House. Andrew Mount has previewed this event alongside an exclusive SBK offer that provides money back in cash up to £40.
TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE (Cheltenham 1:30pm, Thursday, March 17)
Key Stats & Trends
Age
Nine of the last ten winners were aged six or seven. The exception was eight-year-old Samcro in 2020.
Recent Form
Eight of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £10.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. One winner was second on his previous outing – Samcro again – and another, Black Hercules in 2016, had fallen prior to Cheltenham. Last-time-out Leopardstown winners are five from ten in the past ten years for a profit of £25.00. Their full record reads 11F21F3113 (5-10), so pay close attention to horses who ran at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF).
Chase Experience
Those with only one or two previous chase runs to their name recorded form figures of P6F7U142U7 (1-10). The winner was Yorkhill (6-4f) in 2017. Last-time-out winners with five or more previous chase runs to their name had form figures of P218164221 (3-10) for a profit of £24.00.
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Class
Nine of the last ten winners had taken part in a Graded novice chase on their latest start.
Trainers
Willie Mullins is four from 22 in the last ten years but is showing a loss of £8.00 to a £1 level stake. Gordon Elliott is two from three in the same period (+£7.00). All ten of Paul Nicholls’ runners were unplaced.
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The Main Contenders
BOB OLINGER
Henry De Bromhead’s seven-year-old heads the market at odds of around 4-5 and has career form, including his sole point-to-point run, of 11211111 (7-8), with the defeat by Ferny Hollow in a Gowran Park bumper. He arrives here on the back of two comfortable chase wins and that lack of experience over fences is the nagging concern. Four of the seven odds-on favourites were beaten at last year’s festival and five of the six tasted defeat in 2020. Since 2016, only 13 of the 28 odds-on jollies have won and backing them all would have resulted in a loss of £7.96 (-28.4% on turnover). In chases their record was six from 14 against an expected wins figure of 9.10.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
This would be one of the races of the festival if the Wille Mullins-trained six-year-old, hugely impressive in winning both chase starts to date, lined up here but he’s likely to go for the Brown Advisory over a longer trip.
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BRAVEMANSGAME
The seven-year-old could bid to end the poor run of Paul Nicholls in this contest. He was hugely impressive at Newbury last time, conceding weight to useful pair Pats Fancy and Grumpy Charley, though that was a Class 3 novices’ handicap chase, and he has yet to face more than three rivals in a chase. He could only finish a 12-length third to Bob Olinger in last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.
L’HOMME PRESSE
Venetia Williams has had a fantastic season and the seven-year-old took his chase score to 1111 (4-4) when sauntering home by 21 lengths in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown. He jumped out to the left there – as he had done when scoring at Ascot in December – and will appreciate the return to Cheltenham.
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BLUE LORD
He would have finished second to Appreciate It in last season’s Supreme but for a late fall and is three from three over fences this term since the tongue-tie was fitted. Since joining Willie Mullins, he’s only raced beyond 2m1f on one occasion, when a six-and-a-half-length runner-up to Bob Olinger in the Lawlor’s Of Naas last January. He is more likely to run in the Arkle.
HAUT EN COULEURS
Only a five-year-old, he comfortably justified 1-3 favouritism on his chase debut but fell at the Dublin Racing Festival and last year’s Triumph Hurdle third probably lacks the experience for this.
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JUNGLE BOOGIE
The Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old is unbeaten after in a bumper, maiden hurdle and a beginners’ chase, starting as the odds-on favourite every time. Lack of chase experience is a major worry.
RIVIERE D’ETEL
Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old mare just lost out to Blue Lord in the Irish Arkle at the DRF and again jumped out to her right on the left-handed track, as she had done when chasing home Ferny Hollow over the same trip and track on Boxing Day. She ran at Cheltenham last year, finishing a 7-1 seventh of 22 in the Boodles, but I’m hoping that she misses Cheltenham in favour of Punchestown where she’s unbeaten in two visits.
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FURY ROAD
Fury Road is a shorter price for both the National Hunt Challenge Cup and The Brown Advisory and his recent form over trips of about 2m4f suggests he’ll struggle if coming here.
DUSART
Dusart signed off last season with a close-up third to Belfast Banter in the Grade 1 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle at the Aintree festival and Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old made a wining chase debut/reappearance at Leicester in January, coming home five lengths clear of the only other finisher despite jumping repeatedly out to his left on the right-handed track. Surprisingly, he was asked to race right-handed again at Exeter next time, though with main market rival Pats Fancy a non-runner he was left with little to beat. He went out to his left again but outclassed his rivals and cruised home by 11 lengths. There will be plenty of improvement to come when he races left-handed over fences for the first time and, though I’d be happy to back him if he went for this race, I expect he’s being lined up for one of the handicap chases.
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TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE VERDICT
Plenty of these have multiple entries, though it will be surprising if Bob Olinger doesn’t come here. I’m happy to oppose him at very skinny odds given his relative lack of chase experience and will instead side with L’HOMME PRESSE. The Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old is four from four over fences and could have even more improvement to come now returned to a left-handed track.
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