The Ultima Handicap Chase is a wide-open market at writing and usually is right up until the week before the race. There are a few interesting runners in the betting markets worth taking a quick look at, but this is a race to keep an eye on right up until March. Find out Daryl Carter’s early thoughts alongside a new customer sign-up at Sky Bet, who are offering £20 In Free Bets to new customers,when you bet £5 and give your betting funds a boost.
Once again, we start with the stats:
- In the last 12 years, nine winners were aged between seven and nine-year-olds.
- Favourites have a poor record. Just one of the last 12 favourites have scored in this contest.
- Ten of the last 12 winners had a run within the last 45 days.
- All 12 winners from the past 12 years had a win over hurdles.
- Eleven of the last 12 were rated 132 or above.
And now the field
Heading the market at the time of running is DOES HE KNOW 11/1 for Kim Bailey, who is rated 147, the same as stablemate Happygolucky who finished second in this contest last term. That may be why he is heading the market, but he is two for three over fences, and his form looks strong. He may be vulnerable to something better handicapped, though.
REMASTERED 11/1 has been dropped 1lb to 145 after being well-held in the Peter Marsh at Haydock, and although he is an admirable horse, his form doesn’t suggest he is well-handicapped off this mark and may need to come down the ratings for a competitive race like this. He is too short.
FANTASTIKAS 14/1 is interesting off this handicap mark of 144 after clinging on to victory at Lingfield last time, but it’s possible he was idling in front after pulling out more once the runner-up came upsides. He is a progressive horse for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and his form ties in with Does He Know at the top of the market. The seven-year-old is improving with each run, and it’s hard to know where his ceiling is. He has a good chance.
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SHAN BLUE 14/1 would be a very interesting runner should he line up here rather than the Ryanair. He has a rating of 148 and given he would have bolted up in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase by a minimum of 20 lengths when coming down. He has been treated very kindly by the handicapper. It would be a strange move by connections, given he would need at least 10lbs in hand to place in a Ryanair off this rating, so going to a handicap, especially over 3m, could be the way to go. He would rate a huge player if turning up here.
GERICAULT ROQUE 16/1 could be the way to go after failing to see out 3m5f at Warwick in the Classic Handicap Chase. It’s extremely difficult to come from off the pace at Warwick, but he stuck to the task well, and his form has stacked up extremely well in defeat. He will need another small hike in the ratings to get in this race, with the cut-off around 134 in the last two years and 139 three years ago.
Connections won this race with Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016 and 2017. The Kim Muir could be another option.
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Verdict
It’s hard to have a strong opinion on this contest with so many unknowns at this time. However, I would be very keen on GERICAULT ROQUE should he get a small rise in the weights between now and March. He is far better than his handicap mark.
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