It’s the big one! It’s the race that everyone wants to win and very few will. So, I’ve looked the winners from this century and the last decade to help whittle down the most likely winner of the Gold Cup so you’ve got your reply prepared and ready to go.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to 7 and 8-year-olds but won’t be older than 9
- Be wary of the 2nd favourite but respect 1st and 3rd favourites
- Should hold an OR of at least 166 but NOT the highest-rated runner in the race
- Last ran 33 to 83 days ago
- Must have at least placed a previous Festival
- Should have won 40% or more of their chase races regardless of number of runs
- Must be a Grade 1 winner and should be a multiple Grade 1 winner
- Is NOT wearing any headgear
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
This century it’s 7-year-olds who are profitable to back blind showing a 13% ROI. 9-year-olds show the biggest losing ROI of an age with winners and if you backed every runner aged 9 or older this century you’d have 175 qualifiers with just 5 winners. It’s a negative ROI of 86%.
7-year-olds again in the last decade are the only profitable age to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 8/1 or shorter – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind this century showing just over a 50% ROI and third favourites perform just about the same. There have been 22 winners this century sent off 8/1 or shorter shows a 20% ROI but it’s all thanks to the 7 winners who were priced between 13/2 and 8/1 so that’s worth noting.
In the last decade it’s s similar pictures with favourites and third favourites plus there has been no second favourite since Coneygree in 2015 who now just drops out of the 10-year trends. Again, runners priced 13/2 to 8/1 are money makers, but so too are runners sent off between 17/2 and 12/1 so maybe that band can be expanded.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 166 or more – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 170 or more – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
Being arguably the greatest title in National Hunt racing it’s no surprise that it takes a very good horse to land this. It’s a fairly consistent bar across both periods measure however the bar was dropped slightly by last years winner although we have a deep field this time around which might bring it back in favour.
Just backing the horse with highest OR in this race is a loss maker and becoming more expensive to follow
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran 33-83 days ago – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners are loss makers to follow blind but they do hold the highest strike rate this century. In the last decade there have been two winners who placed 4th last time out and they show 270% ROI if backing blind. Good news for Jango Baie fans.
All bar one winner last ran between 33 and 83 days ago which incorporates the typical trials and stepping stones taken to a Gold Cup, even for those reaching for the stars.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had RUN more than ONCE at Cheltenham – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 16/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at The Festival before – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winner who had PLACED at The Festival before – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
You’d expect Cheltenham experience to have been secured by the time you’re attempting to land a Gold Cup and most winners had been to Prestbury Park more than once. Plenty of winners of this had already tasted Festival success but it’s essential that you’d at least placed at The Festival before.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more WINS at 24+ furlongs – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 9 or fewer RUNS over fences – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had 4 or more WINS over fences – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winner who had won 40% or more of their Chase races – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
In the main you’re looking for a horse with single figure starts over fences but regardless of the number of runs, they should hold a 40% strike rate or higher in chase races.
It’s expected that the winner will have at least 4 prior chase wins and preferably has 2 or more wins at 24 furlongs or beyond.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
Every winner of the Gold Cup had already won a Grade 1 and more winners than not were multiple Grade 1 winners
HEADGEAR
- Winners wearing headgear – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Native River in 2018 was the last winner of the race in any form of headgear and he was coming back for another tilt at this race. He’s the only winner in any headgear this century too which has been expensive to follow blind showing a negative 90% ROI.