With the big names covered and the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival now standing at a fortnight, our statistical look at the Festival’s successful trainers now turns to a broader look at the remainder of the Irish in the last decade.
Joe Napier runs the rule over the Irish winners away from the Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead triumvirate, with a look to finding who could be victorious and where in 2024.
A History
The domination of Willie Mullins’ team does not extend just to the Festival as a whole, but particularly to his own countrymen. Mullins alone has trained 65 winners at the Cheltenham Festival since 2014; if we remove Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead from the equation, then the rest of Ireland’s training ranks combined have prepared only 49 Festival winners. Broadly, the Irish success is down to a select few, with the rest making up the numbers just as the Brits do.
Of the rest, all of Jessica Harrington, Joseph O’Brien and Gavin Cromwell have been the most successful, with four winners each, though the first two would take the prize among the also-rans given they have trained four different winners of four separate races each. Cromwell, however, could point to the fact that three of his four wins have come in championship contests, with Flooring Porter a dual Stayers’ Hurdle hero and Espoir D’Allen the Champion Hurdler of 2019, compared to two championships for Harrington and zero for O’Brien.
Perhaps there is a link to Mullins’ success and a trickle down of victories among those lower down the ladder in Ireland. In 2018, despite Ireland winning the Prestbury Cup 17-11, only Pat Kelly trained a winner for Ireland outside of the “big three”, courtesy of Presenting Percy in 2018 RSA Chase (now the Brown Advisory). However, in 2023, six different Irish yards sent out winners aside from that trio.
The 49 winners achieved in the last decade have been spread between 27 different trainers, so plenty have had their taste of victory at the biggest meeting of them all. So let us find out where they have achieved their days in the spotlight, and whether there are pointers for this season.
Fences or Hurdles?
There is an almost completely even split between chase and hurdle success among Irish trainers, with 24 wins coming over hurdles compared to 23 chases and two bumper triumphs. Some trainers are evidently specialists in certain areas, with all of O’Brien and Cromwell’s winners coming over hurdles, the former being arguably the most high profile dual-purpose trainer on this list, and indeed in general.
Conversely, all of Enda Bolger’s trio of wins have come over the larger obstacles, so there are ways of dialling into specific trainers’ specialities. Overall though, there are some themes which can be picked out in among these winners.
Best Races
There are four races which have been won on four occasions by Irish trainers below the upper echelons of the game. Three of the four are handicaps and two are amateur riders’ contests, which highlights the accessibility of these races for certain yards. The Kim Muir and the Hunter Chase are the two amateur races, with the former a handicap alongside the Plate and the Pertemps Final. All three of those handicaps were won lasts season by Irish trainers who fit our criteria: Tony Martin (Pertemps), John McConnell (Plate) and Sam Curling (Kim Muir).
It may be only a coincidence that these are all run on Thursday, coinciding with the St Patrick’s Day celebrations at Cheltenham. The Hunter Chase is on the Friday, but is a race few of the top trainers seriously target, so always represents a serious opportunity. The Cross Country Chase was similar until the takeover of Gordon Elliott (one of the three wins in the race courtesy of other trainers is registered to Denise Foster with Tiger Roll in 2021).
Among the Grade 1 races, it is the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle which has seen most success for smaller Irish yards, with three winners in the last decade courtesy of Cromwell’s Vanillier, Margaret Mullins’ Martello Tower, and Noel Meade’s Very Wood. Other novice races have generally remained more elusive.
In terms of the four primary championship contests, three have been secured on multiple occasions within the last decade, with only the Queen Mother Champion Chase evading such trainers.
Worst Races
The Champion Chase sits alongside the Ryanair as open Grade 1s in which Irish trainers have struggled outside of the biggest names. 23 of the 29 races run at the Festival in the last ten years (inclusive of the now defunct novices’ handicap), have been won though, with only five others among those to not have been won by these yards.
Novice chases highlight the other areas in which such trainers have struggled, with no wins in either the Arkle or the Turners Novices’ Chases and just one each in the Brown Advisory and National Hunt Chases. The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle is a relatively recent introduction that was so dominated by Mullins for so long that few other yards have succeeded, while the Ultima Handicap Chase is a rare race still consistently in the grasp of the hosts.
Only one other handicap has seen a dearth of winners from smaller Irish yards, that being the County Hurdle. Only Peter Fahey’s victory courtesy of Belfast Banter has arrived in that contest in the past decade.
Who to Follow This Year
The Hunter Chase has provided a steady stream of success for those lower down the pyramid in Ireland, and with the top two in the market, Ferns Lock and Its On The Line, both trained in Ireland by trainers with less traditional firepower, the race presents a good chance to continue their positive trend.
The Thursday handicaps are also races to keep onside. The Pertemps Final can often be claimed by a trainer daring to be shrewd enough, and in Gaoth Chuil, the visitors have a fine chance courtesy of Ted Walsh. Noble Birth, for County Limerick’s Eric McNamara, is another with a fair chance having won the final qualifier at Naas recently.
In the Plate, Letsbeclearaboutit could give Gavin Cromwell a fifth Festival winner since 2014 given his novice form. The nine-year-old has congested some strong races this season and looks to have a fine chance at the trip.
Lastly, in the Kim Muir, it is Cromwell with a fine chance again, mainly due to the unexposed Perceval Legallois. The same yard’s Stumptown was runner-up last year though may well be too high in the weights this time around, although defending champion Angels Dawn could sneak in for Sam Curling. Good Time Jonny won at the Festival last season in the Pertemps Final, and may do so again in this contest for Tony Martin.
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