It’s exactly seven weeks until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. At GG, we are aiming to provide even more insight into the Greatest Show on Turf, with statistical analysis into the biggest names behind the horses.
In his opening column, our writer, Joe Napier, provides the insight into the most successful Cheltenham trainer of all, with everything there is to know about Willie Mullins’ record, and the chances he has of extending it this year.
A History
On Willie Mullins’ personal website, there is a luxury few could ever dream to afford. A dedicated timeline takes you on a journey through his Cheltenham Festival winners which, admittedly, is something a handful of other handlers could enjoy. Except Mullins’ keeps going, and going, and going.
This season, it may take you even longer to reach the bottom of his timeline, which highlights Tourist Attraction’s 25/1 shock in the 1995 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Before the turn of the millennium, he would rack up another four Festival victories, although only one of those came over obstacles due to a hat-trick of successes in the Champion Bumper courtesy of Wither Or Which, Florida Pearl and Alexander Banquet.
The de facto halfway point of Mullins’ Cheltenham reign comes in 2010, that being the midpoint Festival between Tourist Attraction and today. Yet, when Quevega won the Mares’ Hurdle at that year’s meeting, she was only the 17th winner sent out from Closutton at Cheltenham. It is only in recent years that we have seen such obscene acceleration.
The website timeline is currently headed, of course, by last year’s Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs, or “Number 94” as he can otherwise be listed. He was one of six to score for Mullins a year ago; the same total this season would see him reach an historic century.
When Quevega won the Mares’ Hurdle in 2010, she was only the 17th winner sent out from Closutton at Cheltenham.
Fences or Hurdles?
Historically, it is the hurdlers who most frequently return to Ireland with the bounty for Mullins’ team. Of his 94 victories, 51 have succeeded over timber, 31 have come over fences, while the yard boasts a remarkable 12 winners in the Champion Bumper.
However, if you are looking for a modern Mullins winner at the Festival, you are better off looking at his chase runners. Of his last 25 to score at the meeting, a figure, by the way, that would still have him in the top ten winningest trainers of all time at the Cheltenham Festival, 13 have come over the larger obstacles. That includes four of the six winners he enjoyed in 2023, with his yard’s improvement in that area highlighted by his first successes in both the Gold Cup and the Champion Chase.
Best Races
The Champion Bumper is easily the most successful race in Mullins’ Cheltenham history, both in comparison to his tallies in other races, and in that his 12 wins represent over ⅓ of the total runnings. To fully emphasise the point, only two other trainers have ever won the Champion Bumper more than once (Edward O’Grady and Gordon Elliott).
However, there are another eight races he has won on five or more occasions. The Mares’ Hurdle has returned across the Irish Sea nine times, six of which came via the launch pad that was Quevega. Being critical, he has “only” won the race three times since then, with none arriving since 2018.
Punters should ultimately have an eye on Mullins’ runners from the off: his third most successful race is the Supreme, which he has won seven times. His first ever Festival winner came in the race, though five of his champions have won it since 2013. It is a race which provides consistent success, while the second event of the meeting, the Arkle, has also been won five times by a Closutton inmate.
The contests in which Mullins has the best recent form compared with the norm include the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle (or the Ballymore prior to their defection of sponsorship), in which he has six wins, including the last two renewals. The Triumph Hurdle (three of the last four for four wins overall) and the National Hunt Chase (last two for four wins) also stand out in this regard, while by far his most successful handicap contest is the County Hurdle, which he has won six times.
Worst Races
Handicaps. Though he has plundered ten wins between the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe on the final day of the Festival, Mullins has only ever had one other handicap winner at the meeting, that being Bleu Berry in the 2018 Coral Cup. His first winner in a Festival handicap only arrived in 2010 too.
More specifically, we can point to handicap chases as his Achilles’ Heel; though these are not traditionally races Mullins targets, it is still an outlier that he has never won one. Even recent Grade 1 winner Dinoblue managed to get beaten in the Grand Annual last year.
All told, there are only seven current races which Mullins has failed to win at Cheltenham and six of those are handicaps, with four being those run over fences. The only non-handicap he has failed to win is the Cross Country Chase, although again this is a race which holds comparatively little interest to him.
From a Graded race perspective, the Champion Chase was a glaring absence from the CV until Energumene righted that wrong. As a result, that and the Stayers’ Hurdle are now his weakest Grade 1s at the Festival with two winners each, though the last-named race probably takes that dubious title given its six-year absence from his trophy cabinet.
Who to Follow This Year
While it would be easy to go with his main Bumper horse, it is worth exploring the chances of all the horses he runs in the race. Ten of his 12 Champion Bumper winners have not been favourite, while seven of them weren’t even his first string according to the market. With the likes of Maughreen, You Oughta Know and Aurora Vega potentially all poised to run without any being a clear favourite, you should not necessarily rely on the one with Patrick Mullins or Paul Townend jocked up.
Otherwise, get out in front with Mullins’ horses in the early race if you are so inclined to follow him. Even though he is associated with hotpots in the Supreme, only two of his six winners have been the outright favourite, so again it is worth heeding the chances of all of his possible participants such as Mystical Power and Ballyburn.
However, in the Arkle, it may be best avoiding his runners this season: four of his five winners have started as favourite, three of which were odds-on, and barring injury for Marine Nationale, he will not have the privilege of favouritism for Facile Vega or others this time around.
Though his record in mares’ races was briefly incomparable, he has won none of the last five Mares’ Hurdles, nor any of the last three novice equivalents. For now, his focus may have shifted elsewhere, although the Mares’ Chase is likely still a race to target for Mullins backers given his strength in depth with Dinoblue and Allegorie De Vassy.
It is worth keeping an eye out for a handicap plot in either the County Hurdle or the Martin Pipe, but otherwise keep your focus on the Graded races. From a novice perspective, the Baring Bingham, Triumph Hurdle and National Hunt Chase are all races he has won for the last two years and none of his respective winners have gone off beyond 5/2. Ballyburn is ante-post favourite for the first-named despite being a Supreme candidate, while the likes of Storm Heart and Bunting may yet shorten significantly for the Triumph, as may either of Embassy Gardens or Nick Rockett for the National Hunt Chase.
In the upper echelons, he is without a winner of the Champion Hurdle since 2016 and a Constitution Hill sized mountain stands in the way for the foreseeable future. Equally, while he has had recent success in the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, with El Fabiolo and Galopin Des Champs poised for further greatness, it is the Ryanair Chase which has been the steadiest supplier of victories among the championship prizes. Mullins has won five Ryanairs since 2016, all with 3/1 shots or shorter. Allaho is already a best price of 11/4 to deliver a third win in the race and the bandwagon may take some stopping.
With the likes of Maughreen, You Oughta Know and Aurora Vega all poised to run, you should not necessarily rely on the one with Patrick Mullins or Paul Townend jocked up.
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