An early season long-distance handicap which has been won plenty of dual-purpose horses but alongside that, I’ve looked at all runnings this century and from the last decade to see if we can figure out what it typically takes to find the Chester Cup winner.
KEY TRENDS
- No real age bias but will be no older than 8 and no 5-year-old winner from the last 10
- Most winners of this race are sent off between 5/1 and 16/1 inclusive
- Preference goes to runners from the lowest 4 stalls but include up to the lowest 6
- Look to runners rated between 93 and 104 and carrying 8-13 to 9-06
- Preference goes to horses who have NOT run at Chester before
- Most likely hasn’t won at 2m2f or further before now
Focussed Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 5yo – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
6-year-olds account for the most winners this century and operate at the highest strike-rate sitting at 10%. They also show a 25% ROI so they’re profitable to back blind over the long term.
In the last decade it’s 4-year-olds who boast the best figures with the most wins, the highest strike-rate and a £14.25 profit to £1 stakes from 24 qualifiers. They’re joined by 8-year-olds as a profitable age to back blind while 6-year-olds drop down to a 7% strike-rate and show a £7.5 loss from 42 runners if backing blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5/1 to 16/1 – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)
Last year’s winner East India Dock was the first winning favourite since 2010 and they’re the only 2 this century which makes backing favourites blind big loss makers across both periods.
It’s a wide-looking price window, but backing all runners sent off between 5/1 and 16/1 has found 20 of the 25 winners and 9 of the last 10. It shows a 28% ROI to SP increasing to 67% at Betfair SP from the last 10 renewals and a 5% ROI this century but rising to 30% if using Betfair SP.
DRAW
- Drawn in the LOWEST 4 stalls – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST 4 stalls – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
No winner from stall 3 this century, however factoring non-runners to look at the lowest 4 stalls you’d show a £29 profit to £1 levels stakes. Backing runners from the highest 4 stalls shows a £41 loss for the same period.
In the last 10 running’s it’s a £1 loss maker to back the lowest 4 stalls blind but that’s good work in comparison to the -£16 shown if backing the highest 4 drawn.
WEIGHT AND RATING
- Carrying 8-13 to 9-6 – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Rated 93 to 104 – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
The last two winner fall outside the bands set above but if you were to combine these two measures you would still be showing a 33% ROI to SP this century and a 24% from the last 10 renewals.
NATIONAL HUNT FORM
- Had won a National Hunt Race – 8/25 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
Given this has winners who are from recognisable dual-purpose and even more jumps-based trainers, I wanted to explore the record of runner who had won a NH Race before this and while it’s found 8 winners this century it shows a 27% losing ROI to SP. You can make it profitable this century though by adding 10/1 as the highest SP you would accept which turns the losing ROI to a positive 15%.
Using the same price ceiling for the last 10 renewals doesn’t make this profitable though with a losing 13% ROI but has found the last 3 winners!
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Chester – 12/25 (48%) & 2/10 (20%)
Most recent winners had NOT run at Chester although from the last 10 running’s you’d still show a small losing ROI to SP of -3% but to Betfair SP you’d show a 28% positive ROI so preference must go to those who haven’t been here before.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 2m2f or further – 17/25 (68%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at 2m2f or further – 7/17 (41%) & 1/5 (20%)
Most winners of this race had run over 2m2f or further before but that might be a turning trend. Only one winner since 2011 had won over 2m2f or further before taking this.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners do not wear any kind of headgear although last year’s winner did. That said, it’s not a money-maker to back horses without Headgear and the winners in headgear were sporting varied equipment so nothing much to be drawn from head