There are 18 different names on this trophy from the 25 renewals this century and Nicky Henderson has been responsible for 13 of those! I’ve looked at all of these renewals and compared to the last decade to profile what it takes to land this Grade 1 littered with Champion Hurdlers.
KEY TRENDS
- Should be aged no older than 7
- Will come from the first two in the betting and favourites are profitable blind
- Must have an OR of at least 151
- If has run at Kempton must have won at Kempton too
- Preferably has 8 or more runs over hurdles and 7 or more wins over hurdles
- Ideally is already a multiple Grade 1 winner
- Nicky Henderson runners are profitable to back blind this century
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds do have the best strike rate across both periods measured but not by much. They are the only profitable age to back blind in the last decade but only show a very small profit of 38p.
There have been 32 horses aged 9 or older who have tried to land this race and only Harchibald was successful and he was a previous winner of this race.
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 2 in the betting – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Priced 9/4 or shorter – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind and most winners this century, and all of the last 16, came from the front two in the betting at SP.
Backing all runners priced 9/4 or shorter has been profitable blind and backing everything else shows a near 60% negative ROI this century. Doesn’t look the race to be searching for shocks.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 151 or more – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners with the TOP OR – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
Not much to learn from Official ratings other than the bar might not be quite as high as you’d think. That said, only two horses with an OR of 170 that ran in here didn’t win but conversely, it’s less than half of the winners this century who were officially rated as the best horse in the race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Newcastle – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran in the last 30 Days – 17/25 (68%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Won last time out – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran over fences – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
No winner this century failed to complete last time out and most winners won last time out. Newcastle has been a springboard for this race but not as much as you may think and while it’s preference to have run in the last 30 days (which also shows a better losing ROI than not) it’s not essential to have run that close to this event.
There has also been no winner this century who last ran over fences from 9 horses who have tried. Only two of those 9 were sent off below 16/1 and they were 9/1 and 10/1 respectively so Sir Gino must be treated in isolation and on his own merit
COURSE FORM (2005 renewal ran at Sandown)
- Winners who had RUN at Kempton – 13/24 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Kempton – 12/13 (92%) & 7/7 (100%)
Only one renewal this century was not held at Kempton but the numbers are stacked up that if a horse has already raced at Kempton they should have won here too. Horses can win first time up here but 9 of those 11 were sent off 9/4 or shorter with 7 sent off as favourite, so the market should be able to tell you what you need to know.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN no further than about 2m1f – 12/25 (48%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON no further than about 2m1f – 16/25 (64%) & 4/10 (40%)
Looking at distance form we can see a slight change in modern winners having more experience at the middle trip and beyond and in turn, having more wins at the middle trip and beyond too. Not sure how much relevance this plays in finding the winner, but we can see that it attracts all types
CAREER FORM
- Had 8 or more RUNS over hurdles – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 7 or more WINS over hurdles – 11/25 (40%) & 6/10 (60%)
While it’s not profitable to back runners with certain numbers of runs blind, it is twice as expensive to back all runners who have 7 or less runs over hurdles than it is to back those with 8 or more runs. If you backed all runners with 8 or more runs over hurdles and 7 or more wins you could find a profitable system showing a 24% ROI to SP alone this century, but it’s a small 44p loss maker in the last decade.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had already won more than one Grade 1 – 12/16 (75%) & 6/6 (60%)
Previous Grade 1 wins are a big preference here but also is having won more than one Grade 1 too.
NICKY HENDERSON (numbers personal to Nicky Henderson in each period)
- Trained by Nicky Henderson – 13/31 (42% & +£2.29) & 7/17 (41% & -£0.47)
- First string – 12/22 (52% & +£4.79) & 6/11 (55% & -£0.97)
Nicky Henderson is the winning most trainer of this race and his strike rates across both periods measured are consistent. While his first strings have a higher strike rate you’d have been better off backing all his runners in the last decade, but it would have been a loss maker either way in that period.