When you have the likes of Shishkin, Altior, Un De Sceaux, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded, Dodging Bullets, Twist Magic and Well Chief as previous winners, you already know this is a proper Grade 1. Some of those had been beaten in this race too, but they’re in good company with current Champion Chase favourite Jonbon and former Champion Chase winners Energumene, Politologue, Finian’s Rainbow and Azertyuiop all on the podium but not as winners of this race.
The race was run as a handicap until 2007 when it was promoted to hold Grade 1 status but was not run in that year. So, I’ve looked at all runnings since 2008, and the last decade, to work out what it typically takes to land this top-tier event.
KEY TRENDS
- Will have last run between 3 and 8 weeks ago
- Ideally won last time out
- Probably NOT the second favourite
- Has an Official Rating of 165+
- Look to those who ran at Kempton or Sandown last time out
- Has already won a Grade 1 and preferably has won 3 or more
- Likely has 10+ runs, 5+ wins and a 50% or higher strike rate over fences
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/17 (6%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 3/17 (18%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/17 (41%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 4/17 (23%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/17 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
Runners aged 8, 9 or 10 have been profitable to back blind since 2008 but in the last decade the same is only true for runners aged 9 or 10. In terms of the winner away from betting, you’d be looking for a horse aged 7-10, which might not whittle the field down as there have only been 13 runners outside that range since it became a Grade 1.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/17 (65%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 2nd Favourite – 1/17 (6%) & 1/10 (10%)
Backing favourites blind since 2008 would show a small £0.88 loss, however second favourites are just 1 from 17 for a £12.50 loss. If you were to back the 3rd, 4th and 5th in the betting each year, you’d have made £25.50 for a ROI of 55%.
In the last decade, the same markers would show a slightly bigger loss for backing favourites blind a -£1.53, second favourites are -£4.50 but again the 3rd, 4th and 5th are all profitable individually but combined show a £26 profit and a ROI of 96%.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 13/17 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of the race hold an OR of 165 or higher but it’s not profitable to just back these runners blind on this trend alone.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 14/17 (82%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran at Kempton or Sandown – 12/17 & (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran between 22 and 56 days ago – 17/17 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners won last time out and almost as many winners last ran at either Kempton or Sandown. All winners last ran more than 3 weeks ago and up to 8 weeks ago if we include the rearranged 2017 renewal at Cheltenham. Even without that, all winners ran between 3 and 7 weeks ago so that’s a non-negotiable, even if they didn’t come from Sandown or Kempton.
COURSE FORM – (4 renewals have been staged at Cheltenham, 3 in the last decade)
- Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 8/13 (62%) & 4/7 (57%)
- Winners who had WON at Ascot – 5/8 (63%) & 3/4 (75%)
All winners at Ascot who had NOT run at Ascot before winning this race were aged 8 or younger. Of those who had run at the track, the majority had won here too or at least run very well.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 12/17 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 13/17 (77%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 50% or higher chase win strike rate – 12/17 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
ALL winners of this race has at least 3 chase wins to their name but most had 5 or more including ALL of the last 8. Most winners had at least a 50% chasing strike rate but NOT the last two. ALL winners had at least 6 runs over fences but most had 10 or more before taking this.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 13/17 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had already won 3 or more Grade 1’s – 9/13 (69%) & 6/8 (75%)
I mentioned in the introduction about the horses who have won this making it a top-tier Grade 1 event, so it’s no surprise that most winners have already won a Grade 1 and of those, most had won 3 or more of them. ALL of the last 16 winners had won at least a Grade 2 before taking this.
TRAINERS LAST DECADE
- Willie Mullins – 3 winners from 7 runners – P/L -£2.56
- Nicky Henderson – 2 winners from 6 runners – P/L -£3.07
- Paul Nicholls – 1 winner from 8 runners – P/L -£3.50
- Gary and Josh Moore – 1 winner from 4 runners – P/L +£11
- Hobbs and White – 1 winner from 3 runners – P/L -£0.90
- Kim Bailey – 1 winner from 2 runners – P/L +£13
- Joe Tizzard – 1 winner from 2 runners – P/L +£21
The ‘big’ names all have a win in the last decade, but they all have run under market expectations with a loss for each. Gary and Josh Moore, Kim Bailey and Joe Tizzard are showing profits thanks to their respective winners at double figure prices, and they account for 3 of the last 4 winners.
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