Clarence House Chase Trends 2026 - Ascot Grade 1 Stats

The honours roll will tell you this is a proper Grade 1, but the race was run as a handicap until 2007 although was not run in that year. I’ve looked at all runnings since 2008, and the last decade, to work out what it typically takes to land this prestigious event.

KEY TRENDS

Preference to horses aged 8 to 10
Avoid second favourites at SP
Will have last run between 22 and 56 days ago and won last time out
Will have an OR of 156 or higher but likely 165 or higher
Should have previously run and won at Ascot
Has a 50% or higher chase win strike rate and at least 5 chase wins
Likely to already be a multiple Grade 1 winner

Focused Trends

AGE

6yo – 1/18 (6%) & 0/10 (0%)
7yo – 3/18 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
8yo – 7/18 (39%) & 2/10 (20%)
9yo – 5/18 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
10yo – 2/18 (11%) & 2/10 (20%)

Runners aged 8, 9 or 10 have been profitable to back blind since 2008 with 8-year-olds the most profitable and with the highest win strike-rate. 10 horses have tried to land this aged 11 or older with no winners and just one place between them.

In the last decade, it’s 9 and 10-year-olds who are profitable to follow blind and both with healthy ROIs but preference would be given to horses aged 8, 9 or 10 in this race on balance.

PRICE

Favourites – 12/18 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
2^nd Favourite – 1/18 (6%) & 0/10 (0%)
SP of 6/4 or shorter – 12/18 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)

Backing favourites blind since 2008 would show a small £0.26 loss, however second favourites are just 1 from 18 for a £13.50 loss. If you were to back the 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th in the betting each year, you’d have made £23.50 for a ROI of 49%.

In the last decade backing favourites blind just covers itself with a 9p profit but backing all runners with an SP of 6/4 or shorter is a loss maker. Second favourites are -£9 but again the 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th are all profitable individually but combined show a £27 profit and a ROI of 104%.

OFFICIAL RATING

Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 14/18 (78%) & 7/10 (70%)

Most winners of the race hold an OR of 165 or higher although that wouldn’t be a money-making strategy with a loss recorded if backing these blind. In contrast, across the last decade you’d show a huge profit backing all runners rated between 156 and 160 so that must be the absolute bottom line.

LAST TIME OUT

Won last time out – 15/18 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Ran at Kempton or Sandown – 13/18 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
Ran between 22 and 56 days ago – 18/18 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)

Last time out winners show around a 65% ROI in the last decade and just over 50% since 2008. Most winners last ran at either Kempton or Sandown in their last race. Sandown runners are not profitable to back blind though, but Kempton last time out runners are which is true across both periods measured.

Including 3 renewals in the last decade which were delayed to Cheltenham trials day, all winners last ran between 22 and 56 days ago so that’s non-negotiable.

COURSE FORM – (4 renewals have been staged at Cheltenham, 3 in the last decade)

Winners who had RUN at Ascot – 9/14 (64%) & 5/7 (72%)
Winners who had WON at Ascot – 6/9 (67%) & 4/5 (80%)

All winners at Ascot who had NOT run at Ascot before winning this race were aged 8 or younger and of those who had been to this track before, most had won which shows a 20% ROI to SP alone in the last decade.

CAREER CHASE FORM

Had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 13/18 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
Had 5 or more WINS over fences – 14/18 (78%) & 9/10 (90%)
50% or higher chase win strike rate – 13/18 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)

Many winners of this race have 10 or more runs over fences and in turn most winners have 5 or more wins over fences.

In the last decade, the only two winners who did not hold a 50% or higher win strike rate over fences were in 2023 and 2024 when the race was moved from Ascot to Cheltenham.

GRADED FORM

Had already won a Grade 1 – 14/18 (78%) & 8/10 (80%)
Had already won 3 or more Grade 1’s – 10/14 (71%) & 7/8 (88%)

This is proper Grade 1 so it’s no surprise to see that most winners of this rave have previous Grade 1 form and multiple wins in that sphere too.

TRAINERS LAST DECADE

Willie Mullins – 3 winners from 7 runners – P/L -£2.56
Nicky Henderson – 3 winners from 6 runners – P/L -£1.45
Gary and Josh Moore – 1 winner from 4 runners – P/L +£11
Hobbs and White – 1 winner from 3 runners – P/L -£0.90
Kim Bailey – 1 winner from 2 runners – P/L +£13
Joe Tizzard – 1 winner from 2 runners – P/L +£21
Paul Nicholls – 0 winner from 7 runners – P/L -£7.00

I’ve included Paul Nicholls to this list as he’s trained the most runners in the last decade but without finding success with any. Nicky Henderson is next in with 6 runners and a 50% strike rate but a loss to follow blind. Gary and Josh Moore had 4 runners and 1 winner which makes them profitable to follow blind. Another trainer to note would be Dan Skelton who is 0 from 3, but clearly that a small sample size.