The Eclipse Stakes is a Group 1 named after the 18th-century racehorse Eclipse and when it was first run in 1886, it was Britain’s richest ever race. It is still a key race in the context of the season, and Dave Young looks into the trends to point you towards the likely winner in 2024.
With numerous classic winners on the rostrum, including last year’s winner PADDINGTON, it confirms that almost 120 years on, this is still a highly respected contest.
Below I’ve listed some trends since the turn of the century alongside the last 10 running’s to see what it takes to make an Eclipse winner and if there’s anything to be found using recency bias.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites in fields of 7 or smaller are 8/12 but are just 2/12 in fields of 8 or bigger
- In fields of 7 or smaller it’s preferable to be drawn in the lower half, in fields of 8 or bigger it’s preferable to be drawn in the higher half
- 3yo’s should have had 6 or more career runs and 4 or more career wins
- 4yo’s and older should have had 9 more career runs and 5 or more career wins
- Should have an Official Rating of at least 118 but preferably 120+
- Doesn’t need to have run at Sandown but if they have, they should have won here
- Will have at least placed last time out, ran in the last 2-4 weeks, ideally ran in a Group 1 last time out and at 10 furlongs or more
- Should have raced at about 10 furlongs in their career unless they are a 3yo where it’s split 50/50 this century so irrelevant to them
- Ideally has run 2-4 times this season and has won a race this season
- Must be a Group winner and really should be a Group 2 or better winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3YO – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 4YO – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5YO – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3YO Runs – 9/10 (90%) & 5/6 (83%) had 6+ runs
- 3YO Wins – 9/10 (90%) & 6/6 (100%) had 4+ wins
- 4/5YO Runs – 12/14 (86%) & 4/4 (100%) had 9+ runs
- 4/5YO Wins – 10/14 (71%) & 2/4 (50%) had 5+ wins
There’s a reasonably level split of 3yo’s vs their elders and the vast majority of those 3yo’s had 6 or more career runs and 4 or more career wins. The elders you’d expect to have raced at least 9 times and ideally will have had 5 or more wins.
FAVOURITES
- First favourites – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- First and second favourites – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Priced 7/2 or shorter – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Favourites in a field of 7 or less – 8/12 (67%) & 4/7 (57%)
- Favourites in a field of 8 or more – 2/12 (16%) & 1/3 (33%)
It’s interesting to look at how favourites have performed in this race, especially so when using the field size to add another layer. In fields of 7 or less, the favourites performed at a much higher percentage than in fields of 8 or more. So, this does suggest that favourites are to be noted in smaller fields but granted less respect in larger ones. 11/12 and 6/7 favourites in fields of 7 or less finished Top 2, whereas 6/12 and 1/3 favourites in fields with 8 or more runners finished Top 2.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
No real landslide in comparison of top half or bottom half draws however again bringing in field size does make a small difference. 8/12 winners were drawn in the top half in fields of 8 or more while 7/12 winners were drawn in the bottom half in fields of 7 or less. It might not make too much of a difference, but in smaller fields you might prefer to be drawn low and in bigger fields you might prefer to be drawn high.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 118 or more – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
With classic winners on the honours roll you’d expect the OR to be relatively high and with around 90% of winners in both trend periods being 118+ and around two thirds being 120+, you should be able to whittle down the field by looking for the best of the best.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at 10 furlongs or more – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won last time out – 12/24 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Placed last time out – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 3 weeks – 15/24 (63%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran in the last 4 weeks – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in a Group 1 – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at Royal Ascot* – 16/24 (67%) & 4/10 (40%)
*including the 2005 in these figures which was run at York
You’re going to want to look towards horses who raced in a Group 1 last time out and should have at least placed but preferably won. They should have run in the last 4 weeks but more than 2 weeks ago and we’re going to see plenty or horses who raced at Royal Ascot, but we have had 4 come straight from The Derby.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had WON at Sandown – 6/7 (86%) & 2/2 (100%)
It’s not essential for the Eclipse winner to have raced at Sandown before, however, if they have raced at the track then they really should have won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN over about 10 furlongs – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON over about 10 furlongs – 14/18 (78%) & 8/9 (89%)
The majority of winners of this race will have run at about 10 furlongs and they are highly likely to have won at the trip too. Of the 6 who did NOT run at about 10 furlongs before this race, 5 were 3yo’s (that’s 50% of the 3yos who have won this century) so they don’t need to have run at the trip yet.
SEASON FORM
- Had raced 2 -4 times – 21/24 (87.5%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had won a race – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this race had run 2-4 times which is consistent across both periods measured, and most winners had won at least 1 race that season.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group race – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had won a Group 1 – 20/24 (83%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Group 2 or better – 22/24 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)
You’d expect that the prestige of this race would mean it attracts the best horses and every single winner this century had at least won a Group 3. The vast majority though had won at least a Group 2 and most have already won a Group 1 but potentially recent renewals would highlight that as long as you’ve won a Group 2 then you’re still on the shortlist.
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