Since 1957 there have been just three repeat winners of this race, Mandarin, Arkle and Denman.
There have been nine Cheltenham Gold Cup winners who have landed this race in their career too but just Many Clouds has won both this race and the Grand National.
It’s a race that has been established for many years and the trends do seem to be changing. So, I’ve looked at all running’s this century and compared the last decade to see if we can work out what it now takes to find the winner of this race.
KEY TRENDS
- 7 and 8-year-olds are the most likely winning ages
- Likely to come from the Top 7 in the market, favourites are profitable to back blind
- Sent off 10/1 or shorter last time out and ran in at least a Class 2
- Rated 145 to 155 with a slight preference to between 145 and 150
- Carrying 11-06 or less
- Will be a second or third season chaser and NOT ridden by a claiming jockey
- Has previously won a Handicap Chase and either 2-3 wins over fences
- If has run at Newbury is expected to have won at Newbury
FOCUSED TRENDS
AGE
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/25 4%) & 1/10 (0%)
8-year-olds are the winning most age in the last decade with five of their seven winners this century coming in that period. That makes them profitable to back blind showing around a 50% ROI. They also show a small profit this century, clearly thanks to recent renewals.
POSITION IN THE MARKET
- Top 7 – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Top 3 – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Favourite – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind across both periods and with 80% of the winners coming from the front seven in the market, you can whittle down this decent field size quite quickly if using market position alone.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished Top 3 – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Failed to complete – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Ran over fences – 23/25 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran in a Handicap – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (all of the last 8)
- Ran at about 3m or further – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran inside 60 days – 16/25 (64%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Sent off 10/1 or shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Class 2 or better – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
More winners than not didn’t win last time out but the majority of winners did finish in the Top 3. Most winners completed last time out and raced over fences.
All the last eight winners last ran in a handicap and every winner ran in a Class 2 or better last time out. All the last 16 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter last time out.
OFFICAL RATING
- Between 145 and 155 – 17/25 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Between 145 and 150 – 12/25 (48%) & x/10 (0%)
Most winners were rated between 145 and 155 including 11 of the last 12 but it’s not profitable to back blind. Reducing the window to 145 and 150 does make it profitable to follow blind with a £32 profit to £1 stake this century but it’s also not profitable (like the 145-155 band) to follow blind in the last decade.
WEIGHT CARRIED
- 11 stone 6 lbs or LESS – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
This metric might not whittle the down a whole lot but it’s clear that trying to carry heavy weights in this contest is not desirable and the ceiling must be put at 11 stone 6 lbs.
JOCKEY
- Ridden by a non-claiming jockey – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
Experience counts as a jockey and there has only been one winning jockey who took weight off their mounts back.
SEASONS OVER FENCES
- 1st Season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 2nd Season – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 3rd Season – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 4th Season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Across both periods, second season chasers have landed 60% of renewals and it’s another landslide for the next best option, which is third season chasers.
CHASE FORM
- 2 or fewer Handicap Chase RUNS – 13/25 (52%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 1 or more Handicap Chase WINS – 15/25 (60%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 7 of more RUNS over fences – 15/25 (60%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 2 or 3 WINS over fences – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
There’s been a changing trend with regards to the number of Handicap Chase runs the winner will have had, and that now is in favour of those with at least two Handicap Chase runs. That in line boosts the expectation of them having won a Handicap Chase too.
Most winners have seven or more runs over fences and the majority of winners have two or three wins over fences and only last years winner had fewer than two.
DISTANCE FORM
- Has RUN at about 3m or further – 24/25 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had WON at about 3m or further – 20/24 (83%) & 8/9 (89%)
Only the 2024 winner had NOT run at about 3 miles or further before winning this race and last years winner was the first to have only one previous run at about that trip or further. Possibly less of a desirable trait than it used to be, but it’s a small changing number at the moment.
COURSE FORM
- Has RUN at Newbury – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Has WON at Newbury – 13/16 (81%) & 5/5 (100%)
Not all winners of this race had run at Newbury but of those who had, only three had NOT won here too. The last 11 winners of this race who had run at Newbury, had won here too.