It’s not all about the classics where Epsom is concerned and the Coronation Cup has seen many high-class horses in the winner’s enclosure. Aidan O’Brien has trained the last two winners but the previous six were all British trained.
I’ve looked at the last 25 and last 10 renewals to view what patterns have held through both period and what might be changing for us to try and predict this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Respect all runners sent off at 100/30 and shorter
- Preference goes to 5-year-olds who hold the best strike-rate and are profitable blind
- The highest-rated runner is no longer the most likely winner of this race
- Probably hasn’t run in the last 30 days
- If has run domestically this year will probably have been at Newmarket
- Backing previous 12-furlongs winners sent off 11/1 or shorter is profitable blind
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
This isn’t a race with a typically big field size so the draw figures won’t help us find an angle in although the lowest three stalls have produced a profit to £1 level stakes if backing all runners blind.
AGE
- 4-year-olds – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 5-year-olds – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 6-year-olds – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7-year-olds – 0/25 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8-year-olds – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
5-year-olds operate at the highest strike-rate at 23% and showing a 20% ROI if backing blind across the last 25 renewals. 4-year-olds are the biggest loss makers at a near -60% ROI.
The same principle is true in the last decade, 5-year-olds have the highest strike-rate and are profitable to back blind with a 20% ROI.
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 100/30 or shorter – 16/25 (64%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites have held a consistent win-rate through both periods covered but they won’t make you money backing blind.
Most winners are sent off 100/30 or shorter and in the last 10 years it shows a 23% ROI backing all qualifiers blind.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2009)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 9/18 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
Since 2009, every winner held an OR so looking at who held the highest OR finds 18 renewals of which just two horses were not sent off as the favourite, and both were beaten. Half the winners since 2009 were the highest rated runner in the field but none since 2020 with the last 4 beaten as favourite.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Second last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Has run in the last 30 days – 8/25 (32%) & 1/10 (10%)
While last time out winners will find you slightly more winners than horses who placed second last time out, the latter is profitable to back blind across both periods whereas the former are not.
Most winners had not run in the last 30 days and plenty hadn’t run this season in Britain or Ireland. For those who have raced closer to this contest typically come from the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket and were beaten there. Eydon and Sunway would fit that bill at massive prices in here bidding to join, Pether’s Moon, Defoe and Pyledriver as the winner of this race have prepped in defeat in that contest.
FORM
- Group 1 winner – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Has RUN at Epsom – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (0%)
- Has WON at Epsom – 5/10 (50%) & 2/5 (40%)
- Has WON at 12 furlongs – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
Previous Group 1 winners are profitable to back blind and show a 13% ROI to SP finding 15 of the last 25 winners. It’s about the same percentage of winners from the last 10 following this same measure but it’s a loss maker blind.
We do have a three-time winner of this race who will skew the has run and won at Epsom figures but ultimately, it’s not a requirement to have been here or to have won here.
The winner should be a 12-furlong winner though and while that alone isn’t profitable to back blind, if you add a ceiling off 11/1 at SP then you’d find all the winners and show a 10% ROI from the last 25 running’s and 15% from the last 10.
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