A Grade 2 which has some notion of being a Gold Cup trial, with Santini in 2020 finishing a neck second in the Festival’s Blue Riband event.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century with a comparison against the last 10 runnings to see what it takes to land this.
KEY TRENDS
- All three winning favourites this century came in the last decade
- Last time out winners should be respected but be cautious of horses who placed second last time out
- It’s profitable to back previous Cheltenham winners blind, more so with an SP of 16/1 or lower
- Must have won over 3m plus and ideally has a 33% or better win rate at 3m plus
- Has 3 or more chase wins and has failed to complete in their career
- MUST be a Graded winner and preferably a Grade 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 3/26 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 7/26 (27%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 6/26 (23%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 6/26 (23%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 4/26 (15%) & 1/10 (10%)
9, 10 and 11-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century although 8-year-olds are the winning-most age but show the biggest loss to a £1 level stake.
In the last decade it’s only 10-year-olds that show a profit if backing blind and again the 8-year-olds are the winning-most age but loss makers to follow blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/26 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2nd or 3rd in the betting – 14/26 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 13/2 to 8/1 – 5/26 (19%) & 4/10 (40%)
All three winning favourites this century came in the last decade and but not profitable to back blind in either period.
Backing both the second and third favourites blind is profitable across both periods and the third favourite outperforms the second favourite almost 4 times over, although both are profitable alone as well as combined.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winner has an OR between 159 and 169 – 16/26 (62%) & 10/10 (100%)
All of the last 10 winners held an OR of 159-169 and it’s been profitable to just back all of those blind with a £17.51 profit to £1 stakes and a £19.17 profit to £1 this century.
In the last decade, 34 runners have fallen into this band whereas 30 were outside of it which makes this a definite point of interest.
LAST TIME OUT
- Finished 1st last time out – 8/26 (31%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran between 31-60 days – 16/26 (62%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most runners fall into the bracket of last running between 31-60 days but it still profitable to back that metric blind this century with a £26.16 profit from 91 qualifiers.
Last time out winners show a 12p loss in the last decade and show a small loss this century. Interestingly, horses who finished second last time out are winless since 2007 and are the biggest loss maker this century with -£16.50 and this decade with -£7.
COURSE FORM – (2021 and 2006 were run elsewhere)
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 24/24 (100%) & 9/9 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 17/24 (71%) & 4/9 (44%)
All winners had already raced at Cheltenham, so that is essential and if you backed every runner blind who had won here then you’d be showing a 27% ROI to SP alone. You can improve that and keep all 17 winners this century by only backing those with an SP of 16/1 or shorter.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 3-miles or further – 26/26 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 3-miles or further – 21/26 (81%) & 9/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 3-miles or further – 12/26 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winner who had WON 33% or more of their runs at 3-miles or further – 15/26 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
All winners had already run at 3 miles or further and most of those had won too. It’s near 50/50 for winners having won more than once at 3 miles or further but probably a better way to look at that expectation is for horses to have won a third or more of their runs at 3 miles or further.
CAREER FORM
- Had MORE than 10 runs over fences – 17/26 (65%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 3 or more WINS over fences – 21/26 (81%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had NOT completed a race in their career – 25/26 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
More winners than not had 10 or more runs over fences this century and most winners had at least 3 chase wins to their name.
Most winners had failed to complete in their career and the only one who hadn’t was Santini who had just 4 runs over hurdles and 4 runs over fences, so a relatively small career sample size and the lowest of any winner of this race.
GRADED FORM
- Had won a Grade 1 – 14/26 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had won a Grade 2 or better – 22/26 (85%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won a Grade 3 or better – 26/26 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
The winner will have won a Graded race before taking this but really you should have won at least a Grade 2 before now. Having a Grade 1 win is desirable and ALL the last 6 winners ticked that box.