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    Dante Stakes Trends 2026: Analysis of York's famous Derby trial

    David Young
    David Young
    May 5, 2026
    Dante Stakes Trends 2026: Analysis of York's famous Derby trial

    The Dante Stakes is a Derby trial which saw Desert Crown in 2022 the last horse to do the double but it’s also a proper race in its own right.

    I’ve looked at the last 10 and the last 25 runnings to form a comparison of which longer standing trends are still true to date and where things might be changing all with a view to helping us find this year’s winner.

    • 4th favourites perform above expectations. 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites are loss makers
    • Must have an Official Rating of 99 or higher or is yet to receive an OR
    • Expected to have won last time out
    • Is NOT expected to have raced York
    • Should have won at least half of their races
    • Is expected to be a winner at 8 furlongs or further before now
    • No Aidan O’Brien trained winner of this race since 2010 (19 runners since)

    PRICE

    • Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 4th in the betting – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
    • SP of 5/2 to 12/1 – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)

    Favourites are loss makers to follow blind as are second and third favourites. Interestingly, fourth favourites show a £51.50 profit from 23 qualifiers in the last 25 years and £22 from 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years, hefty positive returns which are consistent across both periods.

    Most winners of this race were sent off between 5/2 and 12/1 although last years’ winner was sent off at 18/1 so didn’t tick this box. He was ranked 7th in the market at SP which has also been profitable blind across both periods but feels a bit more niche and influenceable by likely bigger priced SP’s

    OFFICIAL RATING (measured where the winner held an OR)

    • Winners with an OR of 99 or higher – 13/15 (87%) & 5/6 (83%)

    This race has been won, on average, 60% of times with horses holding an OR. Looking at those races in isolation you would expect an OR of at least 99.

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Won last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (80%)
    • Ran in the last 31 days – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Last ran at Newmarket or Newbury – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)

    Last time out winners are profitable to back blind and account for most winners so that’s a box that even bigger priced winner should be ticking.

    More winners than not last ran within 31 days but that alone won’t making you money and most winners last ran at Newmarket, but following those blind also won’t make you any money but Newbury last time out runners do show a small profit across both periods.

    COURSE FORM

    • Winners who had RUN at York – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • Winners who had WON at York – 1/1 (100%)

    All bar one winner this century had NOT already run at York and that winner had won here in a Maiden on debut.

    CAREER FORM

    • Had won 50% or more of their races – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
    • Had run at further than one mile – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Had won at one mile or further – 20/25 (80%) & 9/10 (90%)

    There have been 7 winners of this race who were unbeaten and 6 of those had no more than 2 career runs (the other had 3). Most winners had won at least 50% of their races though.

    Most winners of this race will have won at 8 furlongs at least by now but it’s only about half on average that have races beyond exactly 8 furlongs before taking this.

    AIDAN O’BRIEN

    • Winners trained – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
    • Last winner – 2010
    • Favourites beaten – 5/6
    • Runners outside the Top 2 since last winner – 17/19
    • Winners trained with a run that season – 3/15 (20%) & 0/10 (0%)

    Aidan O’Brien is an all-time great, but his record of winning early season races has come under scrutiny in recent years. He’s not trained the winner of this contest since 2010 despite sending 19 horses here since. All of his winners of this race had raced that season so that might help whittle down which ones to avoid but it does appear that he’s a trainer worth taking on in this race.

    HONOURS ROLL (This Century):

    • 2025 – Pride Of Arras (IRE)
    • 2024 – Economics (GB)
    • 2023 – The Foxes (IRE)
    • 2022 – Desert Crown (GB)
    • 2021 – Hurricane Lane (IRE)
    • 2020 – Thunderous (IRE)
    • 2019 – Telecaster (GB)
    • 2018 – Roaring Lion (USA)
    • 2017 – Permian (IRE)
    • 2016 – Wings of Desire (GB)
    • 2015 – Golden Horn (GB)
    • 2014 – The Grey Gatsby (IRE)
    • 2013 – Libertarian (GB)
    • 2012 – Bonfire (GB)
    • 2011 – Carlton House (USA)
    • 2010 – Cape Blanco (IRE)
    • 2009 – Black Bear Island (IRE)
    • 2008 – Tartan Bearer (IRE)
    • 2007 – Authorized (IRE)
    • 2006 – Septimus (IRE)
    • 2005 – Motivator (GB)
    • 2004 – North Light (IRE)
    • 2003 – Magistretti (USA)
    • 2002 – Moon Ballad (IRE)
    • 2001 – Dilshaan (GB)
    • 2000 – Sakhee (USA)