Top tipster Daryl Carter has four selections across Tuesday’s cards.
Published: 5.45pm September 12th (Odds correct at time of posting where available)
2.53 Redcar – Prairie Falcon (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
PRAIRIE FALCON was given far too much to do at Newcastle after an untidy start when forced to be held up at the rear of the field. The race was run more than seven lengths slower than the proceeding six-furlong handicap won by the 82-rated Badri (now 90). He gave the first run to the winner, and the runner-up and the performance deserved a good upgrade, especially considering that it was his first attempt on the AW and the switch back to turf is a positive move. He was on the upgrade before that blip, and the form of his Goodwood seven furlong win looks strong in the context of this race, and he is well worth another chance at this class 4 level.
3.55 Yarmouth – Admiralty House (1pt win – 4/1 Bet365, 10/3 Will Hill, 3/1 Generally)
ADMIRALTY HOUSE has been knocking on the door, and his Newbury run was worthy of a big upgrade, having come from well off the pace and being denied a clear run on two occasions. The market wouldn’t have missed that, but that run did confirm he is potentially well-handicapped. At Wolverhampton behind Haskoy, he gave her first run and stayed on eye-catching well under a hand a heels ride. This is a steady improver, and he is sure to leave this rating well behind in due course. Kaaranah is feared the most. They should come to the fore here.
4.03 Redcar – Fox Hill (1pt win – 12/1 Paddy Power, 10/1 generally)
FOX HILL caught the eye at Haydock over five furlongs last time out, and that run hinted that a return to form might be imminent. She ran well when re-fitted with the cheek-pieces at Haydock and chased home a three-year-old improver for Karl Burke, and the return to Redcar where she is 2-2 could make the difference. Backers should have little to worry about in terms of the ground conditions, and it’s interesting that both of her Redcar wins came within 11 days of her last run, and she is 3/4 turned out within seven days so the quick turnaround is only a positive.
4.30 Yarmouth – Romantic Time (NAP) (1.5 pt win 16/1 Bet365, 14/1 Will Hill)
ROMANTIC TIME is a horse I have struggled to get right in the last 18 months. She dissapointed for us at Newmarket at the back end of last season when only seventh of nine in a Group 2 on the back of an excellent Dick Poole Stakes win. She then blew out for us at Chelmsford in a Listed event. She is not straightforward, but Emma Jayne Wilson wasn’t strong enough to keep a grip on her when too keen at Ascot in the Shergar Cup, and her tank emptied, but it was positive the way she kept on under hand and heels. She ran well twice before that against progressive sprinters and had little chance at Ascot in the Holyrood House Stakes when the action developed on the far side of the track, but she kept on well under Hollie Doyle. Doyle is booked again by the yard (Booked for Ascot, Group 2 Nell Gwyn and Group 3 Dick Poole win), and that is a big positive to her chances given the races she has been called up for. Despite some good performances, I am not sure that Newmarket is her ideal track – she can hang right and leave herself unbalanced in the dip. Interestingly she has been strong at the finish in all three of her wins, but on all three occasions, she has had the rail on her right (can drift right). At Sandown, when scoring on heavy ground Marco Ghiani took her to the rail once she hit the front when applying pressure. At Salisbury, she challenged down the rail; at Yarmouth, she had the rail on her right. She has become well-handicapped, dropping down the weights and now into a 0-90, and she returns to Yarmouth, where she has put in two excellent performances at the start of her career. Trainer William Stone is hugely profitable to back at this course (+£43 to a £1 level stake), and when booking Hollie Doyle, they have a 37.5% strike rate (three winners from eight runners). Today she is drawn in stall seven of eight (one off the rail), and Doyle is highly likely to grab the rail here at Yarmouth, where it has been an advantage. Any rain should be of no concern as she is ground versatile, and I want to take on this favourite Tarhib, who has produced her best performances on the AW – but granted, she could be anything with Jim Crowley coming here for just the one ride.
Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
2.53 Redcar – Prairie Falcon (1pt win – 5/1 generally)
3.55 Yarmouth – Admiralty House (1pt win – 4/1 Bet365, 10/3 Will Hill, 3/1 Generally)
4.03 Redcar – Fox Hill (1pt win – 12/1 Paddy Power, 10/1 generally)
4.30 Yarmouth – Romantic Time (NAP) (1.5 pt win 16/1 Bet365, 14/1 Will Hill)
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