Daryl Carter jumps into the opening day of the Grand National meeting, with five selections across the AIntree card. Check out his top picks below, alongside a a Bet £10 – Get £40 at Betfair.
1.45 Aintree – Erne River (1pt win – 9/2 (advised each way ante-post)
This race tends to go to a six-year-old, so there are concerns about Gin On Lime (only six-year-old), but she has questions to answer after not being ready in time for Cheltenham after a setback. Pic D’orhy is the rightful favourite. He sets the standard on ratings, but he has been placed very well, and it could turn out this is another piece of master placement by Paul Nicholls, given this is not a vintage Grade 1.
Still, I have my doubts about his attitude and this track suiting, and he can throw in the odd howler. War Lord never convinced me over hurdles at this trip, so Millers Bank, who was by far the best of these over hurdles and ran a blinder in Grade 1 company on this card last year, is feared most. He is entitled to improve for his one-length defeat to Pic D’Orhy at Kempton, given that run came the first time after a wind operation, and he won the second time after last terms op, and he has done little wrong when completing over fences in two of his four starts. He is still on an upward curve and could play a hand should his jumping hold up around here.
Still, ERNE RIVER is the one that arrives on a steep upward curve and is completely unexposed. That’s what this division has been lacking this season, and this race has been won by future stayers – horses that will go on to be fully effective over 3m – and that’s the type he is. He won as he liked at Wetherby in good style at odds on over another progressive rival and recorded a good time figure and RPR. That win took him to four from five under rules, and his point to point win over Minella Drama suggests that he is well worth his place in this crowd. We are yet to see what is under the bonnet with this horse, and he won’t mind a drop or two of rain either.
He is fresher than most in this field and arrives with an upwardly mobile profile. He needs to improve on the bare form of what he has achieved, so we are taking a slight chance there, but he hasn’t felt the stick since scoring at Doncaster in a Novice Hurdle this time last year the response there was instant. That is something he has in his locker that the market has not seen, so while he is a hopeful selection, there are grounds to think he has a good deal left more to come.
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2.20 Aintree – Pied Piper (1pt win at SP)
PIED PIPER is undoubtedly the form horse here, and I am predicting that the market over complicates things – he will drift with the excuse that Brazil was being handicapped before his win in the Boodles or didn’t have the best passage.
Pied Piper has shown more than enough to think he can win a Graded race after chasing home the very smart Vauban and stablemate Fill Dor in the Triumph Hurdle, and with those two at home in their stable, he is the best Juvenile Hurdler on the track and by a good margin on the form book. Brazil was well placed to win the Boodles, and the runner-up jumped violently out to the right costing himself plenty of ground.
The most interesting of the remainder are Petit Tonnerre, who skipped Cheltenham unintentionally and Fautinette, a newcomer for Venetia Willaims, who may try and steel this on the front end. Still, Davy Russell will likely be alert to any slack pace on the front end, and there is plenty of home straight here for him to make his move. He has recorded the fastest time figures in the race and has the strongest form in the book. He is hard to get away from, even at his current odds.
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2.55 Aintree – Conflated (1pt win – 9/2)
CONFLATED would have certainly finished second to Allaho, and it’s highly likely he would have left Eldorado Allen and Janidil in his wake given the figure he clocked from four out to the second last fence before coming down. He ran almost a full second quicker than Allaho and nearly two seconds faster than Eldorado Allen.
That drop back in trip after winning the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown was a silly move by connections, and they found out early on when their runner was outpaced in the early stages of the race. Still, today he finds himself with an opportunity for another Grade 1 over fences. The step back up in trip on this speed favouring track should suit him very well. He will have more tactical speed than most of these in today’s contest, and that could be a weapon that sees him come out on top.
Clan Des Obeaux could bounce back to life for the switch of headgear, but the race he won in good style last year was atrocious, and his time has come. Kemboy has a bit to find with the selection and doesn’t look to be improving at the age of 10, so this is highly likely to be fought out between the two younger horses. Protektorat will want to see plenty of rain given that rounded action, but he is the biggest danger, although he only achieved what Royale Pagaille did in the Gold Cup and no more. The price play is Conflated.
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3.30 Aintree – Epatante (2pts win – 2/1)
I am not entirely convinced about Zanahiyr wanting a step up in trip, but I do like the move for EPATANTE on her finishing effort at Cheltenham. I also don’t think he is as fast as the mare, and that could prove important with the lack of pace on in this race. Given the way Epatante travels through her races, she should have no issue getting this extra distance, and she is a half-sister to a 2 1/2m Hurdle winner and Chase winner, which also gives confidence.
She should also appreciate this flat track with a career record on such courses reading 12111 (Kempton/Newbury). They don’t tend to get racing at this track until after the third last once straightened up for home, and that will allow her to sit and wait and be produced late with her useful turn of foot. There are plenty of positives for Epatante in this contest other than the fact she has already beaten Zanahiyr.
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4.40 Aintree – The Last Day (0.5pt each-way – 14/1)
THE LAST DAY returned to action with a promising display at Haydock in January and, if not for a fall at the last, would have likely gained his third victory over fences from seven starts. He shaped as though he retained plenty of his old ability, and given how lightly raced he is for a ten-year-old (16 races), he is still one worth keeping on the right side of. He was raised 1lb for that fall at the last, but that still leaves him just 2lbs above the handicap mark he bolted up off here in November 2019 (two chase starts ago).
This would have likely been the target for him after that fall, and he has had plenty of time to get over that. He has a good record off of a break with all four wins coming off layoffs of 50 days or more, so the 75-day absence shouldn’t be a concern, and he must be an each-way player, given most of these had a tough race at Cheltenham last time out. For transparency purposes, I will have a small saver on Dancing On My Own – our Cheltenham tip gone array.
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DARYL CARTER’S BEST BETS
1.45 Aintree – Erne River (1pt win – 9/2 (advised each way ante-post)
2.20 Aintree – Pied Piper (1pt win at SP)
2.55 Aintree – Conflated (1pt win – 9/2)
3.30 Aintree – Epatante (2pts win – 2/1)
4.40 Aintree – The Last Day (0.5pt each-way – 14/1)
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